The five-month Marawi siege in 2017 prompted the declaration of Martial Law. (Straits Times photo)

Martial law in Mindanao has contributed significantly to the decline in conflict incidents and deaths in the past two years, according to the latest study of an independent peacebuilding organization.

Conflict Alert Philippines released on Tuesday the report, funded by the World Bank and the Australian government through its Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, that tracked down political violence, identity-based conflict and crime related violence particularly in Muslim Mindanao.

The report showed how violent conflict began to go down in 2017 despite the war in Marawi, but nowhere as dramatic as the nosedive in 2018.

“What happened in the Bangsamoro from 2017 to 2018 is probably the closest we can get to an overnight leap from war and uncertainty to peace and security in the region,” the report stated. “From all accounts, the incidence and the human costs of conflict plunged in 2018 in all provinces and in almost all conflict causes.”

Mindanao was placed under military rule during the five-month Marawi siege that started on 23 May 2017. It was supposed to last for only 60 days but Congress has extended it thrice, the latest until December 2019.

Conflict Alert monitored 2,910 violent conflicts across Muslim Mindanao in 2018, which is a 30 percent drop from 4,140 incidents in 2017 and 33 percent lower compared to 4,363 incidents in 2016.

It added that there has been a decline in conflict deaths partly due to the drop in coordinated attacks and lesser use of explosives in 2018 compared to 2016 and 2017.

“The remarkable shift in the conflict situation certainly brings a more conducive environment for development to take place and for a lasting peace to be embedded in what has often been described as the most dangerous place in the country,” the 81-page report said.

“More importantly, the situation buys time for the newly established Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) to strengthen its legitimacy and institutionalize the sort of reforms that can be felt immediately by the local population” it added.

“Martial law was imposed due to the eruption of war in Marawi but its positive effects on peace and security were felt across the region, reproducing the order and stability needed ahead of the major political battles in 2018 and beyond.”

“Nowhere in Mindanao has the impact of martial law been as strategic and decisive as in Muslim Mindanao. Increased police visibility coupled with the expansion in the number of military checkpoints have made it extremely difficult for people to carry their firearms in public and to engage in gun battles across the region, especially in urban areas like Cotabato, Isabela, and Marawi cities, and urban areas adjacent to the Bangsamoro such as the cities of Iligan, Zamboanga, Kidapawan and General Santos,” the report said.

The report also noted that collapse in the incidence and costs of violent conflict “has brought about a fragile peace in the Bangsamoro, which has created conducive conditions for development planning and action in the short term.”

“The possibilities for statebuilding created by the new security environment buys ample time for the BARMM and the transition authority to undertake immediate and doable reforms in the economic and political infrastructure of the region,” the report further stated.

The report said that unless a political settlement is reached regarding loose firearms, “the withdrawal of the huge military presence in the region may destroy the fragile peace and reverse the gains of the past two years.”