The persistent coup plot against Senate President Tito Sotto III will continue to threaten his grip on power until 2028, given the current composition of the chamber, where the majority bloc is almost composed of dynastic families, whose votes may mimic one another. 

This was raised on Friday by former senator Franklin Drilon, who also held the Senate presidency and was likewise ousted following a successful coup in 2000.

Drilon, also an erstwhile Justice secretary, pointed out that Sotto’s hold on power is heavily dependent on the backing of the majority, which currently numbers 15. Of the total, four are siblings from two different families: Senators Raffy and Erwin Tulfo, and Mark and Camille Villar. 

Senators Pia Cayetano and JV Ejercito also have their siblings in the Senate—Senators Alan Cayetano and Jinggoy Estrada—though they belong to the minority.

This composition, according to Drilon, poses a threat to Sotto, as support shifts could happen at any time. 

“Whatever the [14 members of the majority] decided is what will be followed…My friend Senate President Sotto is in a difficult position because his majority is very slim,” Drilon said in Filipino in a radio interview. 

“So, assuming that Alan is interested in becoming Senate president, Pia will shift to the minority so that she can vote for her brother,” he added. 

Drilon posits that Sotto’s power struggle in the Senate is expected to intensify as the “2028 election gets nearer,” with Sotto risking losing the post at any time. 

Loren to replace Sotto but not just yet

The majority bloc plans to install Senator Loren Legarda in Sotto's place, but not until 2028, as this is the condition set by the Senate leader. Legarda, on the other hand, has been obviously reluctant to entertain the supposed arrangement, saying she has “no idea.”

Majority Leader Migz Zubiri admitted to floating the idea of making Legarda “the first woman Senate president.” Though it was merely in jest, Zubiri said Sotto consented to it and agreed to relinquish the post until the Senate transferred to its new building in Taguig, likely in the latter part of 2027. 

This is primarily because Sotto wanted the new Senate building be part of his legacy, according to Zubiri.

In September last year, both Legarda and Zubiri voted in favor of Sotto to oust then Senate president Escudero, who was facing accusations of involvement in flood control kickbacks.

Talks of ousting Sotto have persisted since last week, coming on the heels of reports of the impending approval of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Report, which recommends the filing of corruption charges against minority Senators Chiz Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, and Joel Villanueva over their alleged involvement in the kickback scheme in the flood control projects.

Speculations have suggested that the minority is courting Legarda to snatch the presidency from Sotto to avert the committee report from reaching the plenary for official consideration. 

Sotto later confirmed that members of the minority were behind the persistent efforts to remove him in place of Legarda. 

Sotto still 'enjoys' majority backing

He, however, expressed confidence that he retains the support of the 14 majority senators and that the minority’s alleged coup plot will not succeed because they don’t have the numbers in paper.

“To unseat the leader, you must have 13 votes. The 13 votes, you must have it in writing,” Sotto told reporters in a virtual briefing on Friday. “It can't be just a commitment or a word. That's a very dangerous move. You could end up embarrassing yourself.” 

Wednesday’s Senate session was filled with immense tension after it was suspended for over an hour and a half, and resumed with Legarda taking the rostrum in place of Sotto before she declared the session was adjourned. 

Zubiri was also repeatedly addressed as “Madame President” towards the end of the session, though the same ended with Sotto still being the Senate president.

Shortly after the adjournment, Sotto confirmed that there was indeed a coup attempt, but failed to succeed after the majority blocked it. 

Earlier that day, minority senators Estrada and Imee Marcos were seen departing Legarda’s office after a supposed meeting, further fueling speculation that Legarda was being swayed by the opposition to replace Sotto. But Legarda dismissed it, asserting that “People come in and out of session.”

According to Sotto, the minority took offense at the leadership’s decision to remove Marcos as chairperson of the Foreign Relations Committee in place of Senator Erwin Tulfo.

This, on top of the BRC report, has triggered the ouster plot against him. 

Marcos, in response, countered that her removal “had nothing to do with whatever it is that he thinks is going on in the Senate.” 

This is because the Senate resolution lambasting China in defense of senators and other officials, like Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela, “was not even referred to the Foreign Relations Committee.”

The resolution in question, which condemns the Chinese embassy’s alleged indecent remarks against legislators and Tarriela, who are criticizing Beijing’s continued assertion of jurisdiction over the entire South China Sea, has sparked intense debate between the majority and the minority blocs in the Senate.