Ready or not, 2026 is here. Each time a new year unfolds, we always wonder what lies ahead for us. And for the wise among us, or even just plain and simple prudence dictates, we do our level best to anticipate what might happen so we are able to plan and not be caught off guard.

Let’s give it a shot then, and if I may be allowed to share some thoughts on possible scenarios with the aid of a bit of research.

McKinsey’s December 2025 fourth quarter Global Survey of respondents from all over the world surprisingly suggests a sharp reversal of their companies’ future performance compared to the previous three quarters, when they predicted a gloomy outlook primarily because of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day pronouncement of worldwide tariffs for practically all imports entering the United States.

Fears of trade wars and doomsday scenarios of businesses contracting were rife, even possibly leading to an economic depression, a constant top concern of the surveyed business leaders.

This reversal in outlook was apparently triggered by the renewed confidence of more than half (53 percent) of those surveyed in their businesses’ near term prospects, consequently prompting a strategic shift in focus on how to meet the anticipated increasing needs of customers and the ramping up of technology investments, particularly the use of AI in the telecommunications, media, and services industries.

I also surmise that this renewed optimism is because of a realization that perhaps most businesses are living with the additional burden of increased tariffs, which is now a fact of life and is applicable to all. Without competition, then to fret about, since everyone is in the same boat, life goes on and the higher costs will be simply passed on to the customers.

This optimism is particularly felt in the financial services, energy, and materials industries in Africa, Central and South America, China, India, other developing countries, and North America, where it is most apparent. Interestingl,y it is in places where there is pronounced geopolitical turbulence or domestic political conflicts where the mood is either comparatively less buoyant — in Europe, or even more pessimistic, the Asia-Pacific, where the Philippines is bracketed.

As for us, it is unfortunate that not only do we have to contend with the twin concerns of geopolitical turbulence and domestic political conflicts, i.e., China’s aggressive saber rattling in the West Philippine Sea and the long playing political jousting between the incumbent administration versus the other family eager to reclaim lost glory, we now have to grapple with the self-inflicted specter of investors’ perception of widespread corruption in the government bureaucracy due to the highly publicized infrastructure scams.

With investments depressed, our fiscal position will be precariously at risk. Given all these, we are likely going to be the only outlier with a dim outlook among our regional neighbors.

A possible bright spot is ironically the accelerated infrastructure spending by the government to catch up to the dip in 2025 that would much depend on the administration’s ability to demonstrate credibility in reforming the various state agencies tasked with implementing the projects, in its budgeting allocations and, together with the private sector, to follow through with close and transparent monitoring of the budgeting process and the availment and progress of construction.

Another cause for some optimism is that our inflation risk, because of the higher costs, may not be as disconcerting because interest rates are at all time low and will likely stay moderate in the near term, so there is very much a lot of elbow room for monetary authorities to increase rates and fend off inflation at the very least for the whole of 2026.

A wild card, however, that is beyond our control, which could get predictions of benign inflation out of whack, are the prices of oil and food commodities that could shoot up because of the worsening geopolitical strife. In such a scenario, all bets are off, not just for us but for the whole world. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the leaders of those warring states will come to their senses.

Until next week… OBF!

For comments, email bing_matoto@yahoo.com.