After a tense two-day pause, national and local candidates stormed back onto the campaign trail Saturday, reigniting the political battles across the country. But behind the scenes, the ruling coalition, Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is facing its biggest crisis yet.

Once a formidable and unified bloc, the alliance is visibly unraveling — the cracks deepening in the wake of former President Rodrigo Duterte’s controversial arrest on 11 March, which sent shock waves through the political landscape and exposed rifts that can no longer be ignored.

Alyansa originally launched with a full slate of 12 senatorial candidates, but the lineup is quickly thinning. Senator Imee Marcos, the President’s sister, was the first high-profile figure to exit, citing “differences in direction.” Her departure came after she chaired a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on 20 March investigating the Marcos administration’s alleged role in Duterte’s handover to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands.

Widespread protests, explosive revelations

Duterte’s arrest sparked nationwide protests and international demonstrations, particularly in Mindanao, where he maintains a fierce loyalty. The Senate hearings turned explosive after key Cabinet officials — Justice Secretary Crispin Remulla, Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, and others — declined to appear, invoking executive privilege.

Despite their absence, Imee’s panel revealed jaw-dropping findings. No Philippine court warrant was issued. Duterte was denied due process. And Vice President Sara Duterte was barred from seeing her father — a move that potentially violated Republic Act 7438 which protects the rights of detained persons.

Shortly after, Vice President Duterte, whose approval rating has risen to 59 percent, publicly endorsed Imee, further deepening the fracture within the Marcos-led coalition.

Camille Villar next to exit?

Meanwhile, speculation swirls around Rep. Camille Villar after a photo of her with her father, former Senator Manny Villar, and Vice President Duterte — all flashing the signature Duterte fist bump — went viral. The image sent a clear political message.

The Villar patriarch, among the first major figures to oppose Duterte’s arrest, posted a strongly worded statement, saying it was his hope that former President Rodrigo Duterte would have the opportunity to defend himself in Philippine courts under the protection of the country’s own laws.

He said it was painful to see a good friend, a Filipino citizen, handed over to a foreign entity.

The Villar family has longstanding ties to the Dutertes, with Mark Villar having served as Public Works secretary during Duterte’s presidency.

Pia Cayetano’s silence adds fuel

Adding to the intrigue, Camille Villar, Senator Imee Marcos and Senator Pia Cayetano were all notably absent from Alyansa’s last major rally in Tacloban City on 15 March.

While Senator Pia Cayetano has remained silent on the issue, her position within the coalition appears increasingly uncertain — especially in light of remarks made by her brother, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano. Criticizing the manner by which the arrest was carried out, he questioned why no legal remedies were exhausted in the Philippines before Duterte was handed over to a foreign court.

“No Filipino, regardless of status, should be sent abroad without first being afforded the right to legal remedies in their own country,” Cayetano said, calling the situation “mind-boggling.”

Mindanao: A glaring absence

Nowhere is Alyansa’s faltering grip more evident than in Mindanao, Duterte’s stronghold. Since his arrest, the coalition has failed to stage a single major rally in the region. The last one took place in Carmen, Davao del Norte — a full month before the controversy exploded.

PDP resurgence: Go, Dela Rosa dominate

In contrast, PDP Laban, Duterte’s party, is experiencing a resurgence.

According to the latest MBC-DZRH survey, Duterte allies Senator Bong Go and Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa are leading in the Senate race. Other Partido ng Bayan PDP candidates, including Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, are also gaining traction.

“There’s a clear shift happening,” said political analyst Prof. Eric de Torres of the University of the East. “The arrest of Duterte is no longer just a legal issue — it’s a campaign-defining moment. It’s about loyalty, national identity, and unresolved grievances.”

Alyansa candidates stay cautious

While most Alyansa candidates have avoided directly addressing the controversy, a few have cautiously weighed in. Former Senator Ping Lacson urged respect for due process. Rep. Erwin Tulfo emphasized Duterte’s presumption of innocence. Makati Mayor Abby Binay admitted the issue has impacted the campaign but urged voters to prioritize platforms over personalities. Former Senate President Tito Sotto chose to stay out of the fray, citing a desire to avoid further division.

Economic woes cloud the campaign

Beyond the political drama, economic anxiety remains front and center for many voters. Soaring food prices — especially of rice, meat, and vegetables — have pushed the cost of living higher. Despite government interventions, inflation continues to bite, threatening to further erode support for the ruling coalition.

Adding to the uncertainty are ongoing Supreme Court hearings which could redefine the midterm political landscape. Justices are currently reviewing the national budget, the legality of impeachment proceedings against Vice President Duterte, and the constitutionality of Duterte’s arrest.

A precarious road ahead

With internal fissures widening, a resurgent opposition gaining ground, and public frustration over both political and economic issues, Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas finds itself in a precarious position.

As the midterm elections draw closer, the once-mighty coalition now faces an uphill battle — not just for victory, but for its survival.