China can hurt Philippines without firing a shot — analyst
China does not need warships or missiles to cripple the Philippine economy, geopolitical analyst Anna Malindog Uy warned, pointing to Beijing's extensive trade ties with Manila and its stake in the country's electricity transmission network.
Uy sounded the alarm after Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr. urged Filipino businesses to reduce their dependence on China, arguing that the country's reliance on Chinese imports and established supply chains makes an economic confrontation particularly risky.
“One thing that we have to remember, China is actually a major economic partner of the Philippines. The Philippines depends on China on many things, especially when you talk about export of our products to the Chinese market,” Uy said in an online interview.
“We also depend too much on many things when you talk about imports of products coming from China,” she added.
China remains the Philippines' largest source of imported goods, accounting for nearly 30 percent of total imports in the first half of 2026, according to government figures.
Power grid concerns
Uy also cited China's 40-percent stake in the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), which operates the country's electricity transmission system, as another potential vulnerability.
The stake is held by the state-owned State Grid Corporation of China, while Filipino shareholders own the remaining 60 percent.
The arrangement has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about foreign involvement in critical infrastructure, particularly amid tensions between Manila and Beijing.
NGCP has maintained that its ownership complies with Philippine law. China's minority stake does not, by itself, establish that Beijing can control or shut down the country's power grid.
For Uy, the broader concern is the Philippines' economic exposure to China at a time when diplomatic relations have deteriorated.
APEC diplomatic opening
Despite the tensions, Uy said the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen offers Manila and Beijing an opportunity to prevent their maritime dispute from further damaging economic relations.
“This offers a significant opportunity for the Philippines and China to reinforce economic and cooperative foundations of their bilateral relationship, despite these ongoing tensions and ongoing geopolitical and maritime disagreement,” she said.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is expected to attend the November summit, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to participate.
Uy described relations between the two countries as increasingly hostile, with both sides exchanging harsh rhetoric over their competing maritime claims.
“The relationship of the two countries right now is not so good. It's hostile to a certain extent,” she said.
Still, she argued that the economic relationship need not become another casualty of the territorial dispute.
“I expect that the summit could offer an opportunity for pragmatic economic diplomacy, which is very, very important right now, provided both sides are willing to compartmentalize their differences and prioritize areas of mutual benefit,” Uy said.