Violence linked to political, clan and security conflicts in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) has left 235 people dead in 611 incidents from January to 28 July, according to conflict monitoring group Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA).

In a report released Friday, the nongovernment organization warned that violence could intensify as campaigning begins for the region’s first regular parliamentary elections on 14 September and the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections in November.

The report contrasted with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s assurance in his State of the Nation Address that the BARMM elections would be peaceful and credible.

CCAA said election periods in Muslim Mindanao have historically been accompanied by spikes in violence, with this year’s parliamentary and barangay elections creating conditions for heightened political tensions.

“This risk will be especially pronounced in the barangay elections, where contests are often personal and shaped by kinship ties,” the report said.

The group also noted that the elections coincide with the onset of the rainy season, raising concerns that conflict and natural disasters could simultaneously trigger displacement and humanitarian needs.

Gun ban useless?

Since the filing of certificates of candidacy in May, CCAA’s Critical Events Monitoring System has recorded 229 violent incidents and 85 deaths.

While violence was higher during the first quarter because of clashes between government forces and violent extremist groups, the report said incidents from May to July increasingly involved local government officials and political rivals.

The group also said the nationwide gun ban has not curbed violence, recording 24 incidents involving firearms and explosives since it took effect on 16 July, or nearly two incidents a day.

Among the cases cited was the escalating violence between the municipalities of Nabalawag and Kadayangan in the Special Geographic Area, where a long-running rido involving local officials and Moro Islamic Liberation Front commanders has evolved into political violence.

According to the report, a municipal councilor in Kadayangan was killed on 16 July, while a firefight four days later displaced about 1,500 households.