Before the smoke signal The Vatican says the cardinals on 7 May will celebrate a special Mass at St. Peter’s Basilica before gathering inside the Sistine Chapel to begin the process of electing a new pope. The world will soon watch out for the smoke rising from a small chimney atop the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke means no new pope has been chosen. White smoke will tell everyone that decision has been made.
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Pietro Parolin
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Matteo Zuppi
Claudio Gugerotti
Jean-Marc Aveline
Anders Arborelius
Mario Grech
Peter Erdo
Jean-Claude Hollerich
Luis Antonio Tagle
Charles Maung Bo
TIZIANA FABI
Peter Turkson
Robert Sarah
Fridolin Ambongo
Robert Francis Prevost
Timothy Dolan
With no official campaigning, no published candidates list, and the conclave process cloaked in secrecy, talk of who might succeed Pope Francis remains pure speculation. Still, here are the 16 cardinals often named as frontrunners — so-called papabile — divided by region.
Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70: The Vatican’s long-time Secretary of State and a diplomatic heavyweight, he is widely seen as the frontrunner. He played a key role in the 2018 Vatican-China deal on bishop appointments.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, known for appeals for peace during the Israel-Hamas war.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy), 69: Archbishop of Bologna and peace envoy for Ukraine, Zuppi is beloved for his grassroots work and inclusive stance.
Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69: Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches, Gugerotti is a scholar-diplomat with wide expertise in Eastern Christianity.
Jean-Marc Aveline (France), 66: Archbishop of Marseille, a strong advocate for migrants and interfaith dialogue.
Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75: Sweden’s first cardinal and a convert, Arborelius is a conservative on doctrine but is open on migration.
Mario Grech (Malta), 68: Former Synod of Bishops head, Grech is viewed as a bridge builder.
Peter Erdo (Hungary), 72: Canon law expert and evangelist, with ties to Hungary’s nationalist government.
Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg), 66: Jesuit and former missionary to Japan, Hollerich balances doctrinal firmness with openness to reform.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67: Charismatic, social media savvy, and a strong voice for the poor, Tagle is Asia’s top contender.
Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76: Vocal defender of Myanmar’s Rohingya and advocate for non-violence amid conflict.
Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76: A long-time papal advisor and advocate on human rights, Turkson has often been seen as potentially the first Black pope.
Robert Sarah (Guinea), 79: A conservative standard-bearer, Sarah is championed by traditionalists but seen as too hardline to win broad support.
Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo), 65: Outspoken on peace and traditional values, Ambongo is a rising African leader within the Church.
Robert Francis Prevost (USA), 69: Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and former Peru missionary, Prevost has growing influence.
Timothy Dolan (USA), 75: Archbishop of New York, known for his charisma and staunch conservatism on social issues.
