“The existing preoccupation in the South China Sea has been to manage a contested status quo without allowing persistent competition to escalate into unmanageable conflict. This is where the Philippines' relatively weaker power has shaped the rules of the game in many ways, at least for the last decade or so,” Gloria said.
Central to that strategy is what Gloria described as the Philippines' “legalist approach,” highlighted by its 2016 arbitral victory over China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea.
The ruling strengthened Manila's position while helping rally like-minded countries behind international law and placing the maritime dispute within a broader global debate.
“So in doing so, the Philippines has helped place important constraints on how larger powers in the region can actually influence other actors,” Gloria said.
The approach demonstrates how smaller states can use international institutions and legal mechanisms to advance their interests even as major powers dominate the international system.
ASEAN role
Gloria also pointed to the Philippines' current ASEAN chairmanship and its push to accelerate negotiations for a South China Sea Code of Conduct.
The increased frequency of negotiations has raised hopes that the long-delayed agreement could be concluded by the end of the year.
“I think the persistence of these negotiations is itself a significant achievement. It reflects an enduring multilateral commitment to managing differences, even in the absence of an immediate resolution,” he said.
The Philippine experience also demonstrates how smaller states can combine bilateral and multilateral mechanisms while building networks to navigate competition with larger powers.
Economic agency
Gloria said Philippine agency must also extend to the economy as global supply chains shift and new investments move into the country.
The challenge is not simply attracting new supply chains but ensuring they produce deeper economic transformation and strengthen Filipino capabilities.
“The objective should not be for the country to simply become a trusted subcontractor in somebody else's risking strategy. If the country is genuinely going to benefit from this restructuring, then the larger objective must involve using these investments to shore up Filipino capabilities above the higher value chain.”
The Manila Strategy Forum, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Southeast Asia Program, runs 9 to 10 September. The annual conference gathers Philippine and international experts to discuss global economic challenges, the changing international order and U.S.-Philippine cooperation.
