Phl firms’ forecasts remain gloomy, survey shows
DESPITE pessimistic outlook on September due to the economic headwinds that are crippling the country’s economy, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas survey says Philippine companies are optimistic that they would bounce back in the next 12 months or until the first nine months of 2027.
Graph courtesy of bsp
Business sentiment in the Philippines remained pessimistic in September as elevated fuel and energy costs, rising prices and external uncertainties weighed on companies, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in its survey.
However, firms remained optimistic about prospects over the next 12 months, based on the survey done by the BSP from August to September 2026.
According to the BSP, the overall business confidence index (CI) improved to -8.4 percent in September from -10.9 percent in August, but remained in negative territory, indicating that more firms were pessimistic than optimistic about current business conditions.
Respondents cited high fuel and energy expenses and rising prices as the main sources of concern. Other factors included tensions in the Middle East, peso depreciation, and weather-related disruptions.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, businesses maintained positive expectations for the next three and 12 months.
The three-month outlook was supported by anticipated increases in business activity during the holiday period and rice harvest season.
The year-ahead confidence index, however, eased to 26.5 percent in September from 36.4 percent in August.
Hence, firms remained optimistic about opportunities in healthcare, education, tourism, financial services, real estate development and trade-related activities.
The survey also found that businesses expected inflation to remain above 4 percent, exceeding the upper limit of the BSP’s target range of two to four percent.
Employment prospects over the next 12 months remained positive, although less favorable than in the previous survey round.
Moreover, the BSP said more firms in the industry sector planned to expand their operations.
Respondents also identified lower inflation, streamlined business procedures, a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict and improved investor confidence as factors that could support business growth.
The BSP said it continues to monitor developments in the Middle East and their possible effects on business and consumer sentiment, spending and investment.
“These indicators are among the factors considered in the central bank’s monetary policy decisions,” according to the central bank.