CALABARZON may face below-normal rainfall in early 2027 — PAGASA

CALAMBA CITY, Laguna — CALABARZON is expected to face below-normal rainfall at the start of 2027 as the prevailing El Niño intensifies and persists through the first half of next year, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

PAGASA Weather Specialist Bernadeth Lucillo, during a meeting of the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, said the region may still experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months despite the prevailing El Niño.

The outlook, however, is expected to change early next year.

“By January and February [2027], almost all of CALABARZON ay below-normal rainfall,” Lucillo said.

The forecast covers Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon.

In a climate advisory issued on 23 September, PAGASA said a strong El Niño was active in the tropical Pacific and was expected to intensify into a very strong El Niño during the September-to-December 2026 season and persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA said El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the country. Prolonged rainfall deficits could increase the risk of agricultural dry spells and put pressure on water supplies, food security, energy production and public health.

Despite the generally drier conditions associated with El Niño, the weather bureau said localized periods of above-normal rainfall may still occur due to the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones.

PAGASA said it will continue monitoring El Niño conditions and issue updates as the phenomenon develops.