“If we see a dramatic increase in the number of earthquakes, the sulfur dioxide is increasing, longer lava flows, more strong volcanic activities, and more pyroclastic density currents, then we may raise it to Alert Level 4,” he said.
Mayon recently recorded a sharp increase in sulfur dioxide emissions, reaching 13,000 tons per day — the highest recorded level since the March 2000 eruption. However, Bacolcol said gas emissions have since declined.
The longest lava flow from the volcano currently measures 3.8 kilometers, while Phivolcs has not observed pyroclastic density currents in recent days.
“Right now, we haven’t seen it yet,” Bacolcol said, referring to the conditions needed before raising Mayon’s alert level.
He added that volcanic activity remains difficult to predict because each volcano follows its own timeline.
“The volcano has its own timeline. But again, based on what we can see right now, it’s still consistent with its Alert Level 3 status,” Bacolcol said.