Let us not forget that the coalition of the Philippines, the US, Australia and Japan is a prime force in the WPS conflict. China fears this coalition because it equalizes its bully tactics on a grand scale.
(Author’s Note. I intend to interview online the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, if he is willing to talk. I can publish his reply, to be fair, in my DAILY TRIBUNE column StarGazer.)
China now has a huge predicament in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), as the United States is beefing up the Philippine Navy on an unprecedented scale — the equalizer. This is in response to China’s rapid escalation in the last few weeks.
The US is giving the Philippines two patrol vessels as the initial phase of a much larger aid package. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is receiving two Coast Guard Protector-class vessels, with a maximum speed of 25 knots, to arrive in October. The package includes technical and operational training in Baltimore, Maryland, for Philippine Navy personnel.
Right now, the PCG has Multi-Role Response Vehicles (MRRV) and Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) of various lengths and tonnage in a ragtag force. The new US patrol vessels are 25 meters in length, with a maximum speed of 25 knots, enough to challenge the China Coast Guard (CGG) vessels of 80 to 90 meters.
It is a medium-sized equalizer. China’s Zhaotou-class “monster” of 165 meters, or 541 feet, is the largest worldwide and has been used extensively in the WPS (source: AI). But CCG vessels are mostly the smaller vessels of 80 to 90 meters, or 196 to 252 feet.
The CCG’s smaller vessels still outsize the new US patrol vessels, but the latter are formidable enough in a direct naval confrontation. In other words, the CCG will think twice before ramming them, which may result in greater damage to both sides.
A bigger Chinese vessel usually rammed a much smaller Philippine vessel. In one incident, however, two CCG vessels tried to “sandwich” a smaller PCG vessel between them; they ended up ramming each other, as reported on social media.
The US patrol vessels are not equipped with lasers or water cannons. The CCG has an edge there. The Philippine Navy should acquire these as an equalizer. Their role can be crucial in a confrontation. (Sources on military hardware: AI)
Escalation factors
There are three escalation factors: size, number, and injuries. Definitely, China easily has an edge in size and number, although these are considerably equalized by the recent acquisitions from the US.
Injuries are something else. A Filipino sailor with a broken nose or finger is instant headlines worldwide and is a prime escalation factor that will trigger diplomatic protests. So China should be cautious here.
China is known for its massive number of vessels, which the Philippines may not be able to match, even with US support. But at least the size factor is equalized. Forward planning on future upgrades is important. It is the resilience of Filipino maritime combatants that is a big factor in WPS confrontations. It sends a message to the Chinese to be cautious or to stand down.
The situation in the WPS remains at the “skirmish” level. But China keeps practicing brinkmanship while the Philippines practices defiance, which are two rapid escalation factors.
The bully is usually the first to escalate and the bullied is defensive but defiant.
Let us not forget that the coalition of the Philippines, the US, Australia and Japan is a prime force in the WPS conflict. China fears this coalition because it equalizes its bullying tactics on a grand scale.
Finally, the Taiwan factor may easily overtake geopolitical developments in the WPS theater. Taiwan is the mother of all escalations in the tiny WPS arena.
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