Massive global migration may trigger civil wars

Let’s step back and look at the big picture. Event No. 1 is the massive cumulative migration to rich, affluent nations that welcome them with open arms. This migration is due to wars and poverty. Event No. 2 is the cohesion of migrants who have achieved political clout in major cities like London and Paris. Event No. 3 is the ripening of opposing social groups toward a clash, a civil war, a social disaster.

In more detail, post-World War II, from 1945 to the 1970s (20 to 30 years), a massive global migration of 50 to 60 million was triggered by “extreme post-war poverty and conflicts,” particularly into the UK, France and Germany.

This was followed in the 1990s by the migration of millions more due to the Balkan/Yugoslav wars, US-led interventions in the Middle East, civil wars in Syria and Afghanistan, and the collapse of states.

“The 2015 European crisis alone saw 1.3+ million asylum seekers. The 2022 Ukraine invasion displaced 8+ million into the EU/UK, an updated figure.” (Source: Google)

In summary, the total number of post-war migrants from the three key events above was a staggering 10 million, not considering undocumented cases. Hardest hit was the EU, led by France (North African migrants), Germany and the UK.

The cumulative effect of these massive migrations is being felt slightly now but is evolving rapidly into a future massive explosion. The catalyst for a future catastrophic event is the growing conflict between the old residents and the new migrants, who are gaining rapid political strength, particularly in London (Muslims) and Paris (North Africans).

There are two opposing forces — a divergence, meaning a multicultural landscape, and a convergence, meaning an integration of cultures into a common entity. Both are fueled by survival, ironically.

Cumulatively, these two opposing forces have continuously been at play through time, catalyzing both harmony and conflict, depending on how the cultural groups and host communities accept or oppose each other.

In London, Paris and other big EU cities, where the Islamic groups have successfully integrated and become a powerful political force, there is the danger of the old residents becoming insecure and the new residents gaining power through constant coalitions, leading toward a future clash whose results will be unpredictable. This is tantamount to a strange form of civil war.

“Today, London operates as a ‘superdiverse’ city with no single ethnic majority, anchored by institutions like the Migration Museum, documenting centuries of shared history.” (Source: Google) There are similar events happening in Paris and other big EU cities.

Recently, the latest violent street protests, especially in Paris and London, triggered new policies of forced mass deportation. The success of this is unpredictable and unknown.

EU mass migrations

From 2004 to the present, EU expansion brought large numbers of Eastern European workers — Polish, Latvian and Romanian citizens — who reshaped neighborhood economies and services.

Following Brexit, migration to the EU dropped while non-EU migration, especially from India, Pakistan, Nigeria and China, driven by study, work and family reunification, grew to make up the vast majority of non-British arrivals. (Source: Google)

This article is limited to skimming the surface of a vastly complex social situation, highly dynamic and ever-changing. Coming up with a Bible-thick history book on an ever-changing topic, which nullifies past research, is the great challenge, as any article becomes obsolete quickly.

It may perhaps be good for the affected nations to form an alliance, even if they may deviate from a common policy. This hopefully will help contain the wildfire sweeping across the planet.