A global security expert warned that China’s activities in the Philippines extend beyond the West Philippine Sea (WPS), with influence operations allegedly reaching urban centers, even as tensions at sea continue to escalate and fuel costs begin to constrain maritime patrols.

Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight Foundation, said Chinese efforts are not limited to territorial disputes but include attempts to shape public perception and normalize Beijing’s presence as a “permanent fact of life.”

Powell said their group has been monitoring so-called gray zone activities, particularly those involving organizations linked to the Chinese Communist Party.

“The connections are not secret, but they are written in a language most Filipinos don’t speak,” he said.

He also claimed that Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian had engaged with Manila-based media executives to promote pro-China narratives, while around 5,000 teachers from mainland China have been deployed to Chinese-language schools in the Philippines.

Powell clarified that their investigations are not directed at Chinese-Filipino communities but at what he described as hostile state-backed initiatives aimed at influencing local institutions.

Open-source tools

The SeaLight Foundation, composed of volunteers from Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, uses open-source tools to track activities such as maritime incursions, intimidation, artificial island-building, and harassment of lawful operations.

The developments come as diplomatic tensions flared anew after the Chinese Embassy in Manila accused the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) of “stirring up trouble” near Panganiban (Mischief) Reef.

Cutting patrols

Embassy Deputy Spokesperson Guo Wei criticized PCG spokesperson for the WPS, Rear Adm. Jay Tarriela, alleging that the agency was attempting to “manufacture confrontation” by flying over the reef with members of the media.

“The videos and photos he releases to generate media hype cannot alter the fundamental fact that China has sovereignty over the relevant islands, reefs, and their adjacent waters,” Guo said.

The statement followed reports that Chinese forces fired flares near a PCG aircraft during a maritime domain awareness flight on Friday, an act described by Philippine authorities as dangerous provocation.

China has transformed Panganiban Reef, located just over 20 nautical miles from Ayungin Shoal — the site of a Philippine military outpost — into a heavily fortified artificial island.

Tarriela rejected China’s claims, saying tensions in the WPS are driven not by Philippine transparency efforts but by Beijing’s “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions.”

The Department of Foreign Affairs has likewise dismissed China’s sweeping claims over the South China Sea as “erroneous” and “misleading,” citing a 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated Beijing’s expansive assertions.

Amid these tensions, a separate concern has emerged over the Philippines’ ability to sustain maritime patrols due to rising global fuel prices.

The PCG’s budget for the year was increased to P42.5 billion, but fuel allocations were based on an estimated $60 per barrel. Prices have since climbed to over $100 per barrel, raising the risk of operational cutbacks.

“If we cut patrols, there is a national security concern because they can no longer safeguard our waters,” Gatchalian said.