The Philippines may need to add nearly 89 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity over the next 14 years, driven by massive investments in solar, gas, and wind, as rising electricity demand and the shift toward renewable energy put pressure on the country to accelerate its power buildout.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said during a media briefing on Tuesday that installed capacity would need to increase from 32.2 GW this year to as much as 121.3 GW by 2040 under the government’s more conservative scenario.

This translates to an additional 89.1 GW of capacity as the government targets a renewable energy share of 35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040.

“The country will need substantial new capacity to meet growing demand and maintain a reliable power supply. As we move toward 35 percent renewable energy by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040, as mandated by the President, reliability will require a diversified mix of renewables, flexible generation, storage, reserves and transmission—and the timely completion of projects already in the pipeline,” Garin said.

Under the scenario, the country would need more than 24 GW of new ground-mounted solar, 20 GW of new gas capacity and nearly 10 GW of new onshore wind.

Garin said projects already in the pipeline would not be enough to cover the country’s long-term power requirements, underscoring the need for substantial additional investments.

However, bringing committed and awarded projects online on schedule could significantly narrow the capacity gap.

If projects in the pipeline, including offshore wind and waste-to-energy, are completed as planned, the requirement for new gas capacity would fall to about 13 GW from 20 GW, while the need for new ground-mounted solar would decline to about 14 GW from more than 24 GW by 2040.

“We need to make sure projects are completed on time. Whatever the committed delivery date is, you have to meet it,” Garin said.

The DOE is also factoring in the possible entry of 1.4 GW of nuclear capacity by 2038. 

Even with nuclear, however, the system would still require about 13 GW of new gas and 15 GW of ground-mounted solar, along with wind, storage and transmission infrastructure.

“No single technology can carry the country’s future power requirements. Reliability will depend on renewables, flexible generation, storage, reserves and transmission working together,” Garin said.

She said intermittent renewable energy would require sufficient flexible generation and storage to support the system when solar and wind generation are unavailable.

At the same time, the DOE is tightening scrutiny of existing generators as prolonged and unscheduled outages put pressure on the grid.

Garin has ordered reviews of power plant engineering and design standards as well as audits of actual plant performance. 

The DOE is also reviewing the conditions and validity periods of government-issued endorsements and contracts and considering stronger sanctions, including blacklisting, for erring generation companies.

“I’ve been looking at this repeatedly: there is a direct correlation between the age of the plant and the number of outages that it has. Some are on outage for half of the year. 

Some of these plants are 20 years old, others more than 30 years old. In fact, some are already 50 years old. If a plant is frequently on outage, it is not delivering what it is supposed to do. We might as well cancel their license,” Garin said.

“I’ve been looking at this repeatedly: there is a direct correlation between the age of the plant and the number of outages that it has. Some are on outage for half of the year. Some of these plants are 20 years old, others more than 30 years old. In fact, some are already 50 years old. If a plant is frequently on outage, it is not delivering what it is supposed to do. We might as well cancel their license,” Garin said.

The department is particularly reviewing power plant performance in the Visayas, Mindoro and Palawan amid grid alerts and concerns over generators failing to meet their obligations.

On electricity costs, the DOE is working with regulators, distribution utilities, electric cooperatives and lawmakers on reforms to remove system-loss charges and the corresponding value-added tax from consumers’ bills.