Motorists expect a measure of relief next week as pump prices are expected to decline for the first time after weeks of hefty increases, although retail prices are still likely to remain near recent highs.

Industry estimates based on Monday-to-Thursday trading indicate gasoline prices may fall by P1.00 to P1.50 per liter, while diesel prices could decrease by P0.50 to P1.00 per liter.

If realized, prevailing pump prices in Metro Manila would remain elevated, with diesel likely ranging from P85.30 to P98.30 per liter and gasoline from P74.90 to P105.50 per liter, depending on the grade.

Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum Inc., said oil prices remained volatile as markets continued to balance geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against hopes of easing supply disruptions.

“After Brent surged above $100 per barrel last week due to an expanded threat to Middle East crude supplies, prices weakened earlier this week as cautious optimism over the US-Iran truce outweighed geopolitical risk,” Bellas said.

Risks still elevated

“However, as supply risks remain high due to still-limited flows from the region through the Strait of Hormuz, prices once again surged as tensions escalated after airstrikes resumed in the Middle East. Dwindling US oil inventories further added to supply worries,” he added.

Oil prices later pared some gains after a Saudi Arabia-led initiative to strengthen maritime security in the Red Sea won the backing of 14 Arab states.

Bellas said refined fuel prices have remained firmer than crude prices due to tight product supplies, with diesel and gasoline markets continuing to face potential shortages as geopolitical tensions disrupt refinery operations in the Middle East. 

He added that Asian diesel prices continue to draw support from supply risks in the Middle East and Russia. At the same time, limited gasoline exports from China, renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and Russia’s continuing export ban have kept global gasoline markets tight and prices relatively elevated.

The expected rollback follows this week’s steep fuel price hike, when oil companies raised gasoline prices by P6.80 per liter, diesel and premium diesel by P7.32 per liter, and kerosene by P4.22 per liter.