As the calendar resets and history is once again measured in before and after, it’s worth remembering that even the world’s oldest institutions have faced moments when the future was anything but assured.

During World War II, at the height of Nazi expansion, the Vatican quietly prepared for a scenario that would have shattered centuries of tradition: the arrest of a reigning pope and the relocation of the Catholic Church’s seat of power outside Rome.

Pope Pius XII, who led the Church from 1939 to 1958, reportedly told senior bishops that if German forces ever succeeded in detaining him, his papacy would immediately cease. In practical terms, that meant he would revert to being Eugenio Pacelli, the man, not the office, allowing the College of Cardinals to elect a successor without delay. The Church, he believed, could not afford a leadership vacuum in the middle of a global war.

Plans went further still. Cardinals and senior officials were expected to flee Italy and regroup in a neutral country, with Portugal widely identified as the most viable refuge. From there, a conclave could be convened and the Church’s global leadership reestablished in exile, preserving institutional continuity even if Vatican City fell under Nazi control.

These preparations were not theoretical. Historical records and later testimonies indicate that Adolf Hitler had seriously considered occupying the Vatican in 1943, securing its archives and art treasures and removing the pope and his advisers. The concern in Berlin was that Pius XII’s moral authority, particularly regarding the persecution of Jews, could fuel resistance in Catholic-majority countries and undermine Nazi influence.

In September 1943, days after Germany occupied Rome, Pius reportedly told close aides that arrest felt imminent. Yet he refused repeated offers to flee abroad. Leaving Rome, he believed, would symbolize abandonment at a moment when civilians, clergy, and refugees were enduring occupation and violence.

The plan was never executed. Some historians argue that German commanders quietly discouraged it, warning that abducting the pope would provoke global outrage among Catholics. Others suggest the scheme collapsed under the weight of Germany’s worsening military situation. Accounts from Vatican researchers, including Jesuit historian Father Peter Gumpel, have drawn on documents from the Vatican’s Secret Archives to reconstruct these contingency plans.

By 1944, the Vatican had effectively survived the Nazi threat without needing to implement the contingency plan to relocate to Portugal. The pope remained in Rome, continuing his wartime leadership and humanitarian efforts, setting the stage for post-war reconstruction and the Church’s renewed global influence.

As a new year begins, a time when reinvention and survival dominate personal resolutions, this lesser-known episode offers an institutional parallel. The Vatican, often perceived as immovable, once prepared to uproot itself to ensure its future.

History, after all, doesn’t only turn on what happens. Sometimes it’s shaped by the plans drawn up for the year that almost came next.