Political tempest — quo vadis Philippines?

The flood control corruption scams have triggered World War III, Philippine politics style, and is now in full swing. This tempest of a storm is intensifying its destructive winds with all on its way in deep danger of being blown away like flimsy built nipa huts.

The protagonists for 2028, an agonizingly long calvary for us for three more years, seemingly do not have the welfare of the country in mind as their slings, arrows, bricks and anything else they can throw at each other are destroying even the hollowed grounds of the Filipino tradition of — no matter what — above all, blood always comes first. The explosive speech of the First Sister publicly exposing long whispered family skeletons is unprecedented in our nation’s history casting into doubt the incumbent’s moral standing to set much less pave the way for higher governance standards.

The reputations of long standing respected democratic institutions such as the Senate and its Senators, the House of Representatives and its elected Congressmen regardless of political affiliations are not being spared from the bloodbath putting into doubt in the minds of many the merits of a freely elected US style, free wheeling democratic space.

Foreign investors have turned their backs away from the Philippines putting the stock market into what seems to be an eternal slumber. Valuations are historically down with no signs of abating the deep dive into new lows. To make matters worse, growth has begun to slow. Oil prices are creeping upwards. Except for banks, corporate profits are flattish at best.

So the question now is, with this political tempest bearing down on us, Quo Vadis Philippines? There are of course various iterations of what could evolve and your guess is as good as mine. Allow me however to let my creative juices soar and share these tongue in cheek thoughts with you about an imaginary country with the same circumstances as ours as I ask for your indulgence and consideration for my ignorance of the law.

Scenario One — Status Quo

The political scene remains the same. The President remains in power. But dismay and pessimism about the future persists with the public’s sullen acceptance of the bind we’re in until 2028 when a freely elected leader emerges. To quell the people’s unease about the immediate future, the administration finally shows its fangs by declaring a state of emergency, create an independent fully empowered anti-corruption unit directly under the Office of the President and forthwith, even without airtight evidence and strict adherence to the law, to immediately arrest and secure Interpol’s cooperation to apprehend those who fled, as well as the highly publicized culprits who are still in town. And not just the pawns but also the brains and manipulators of the scams particularly those in lofty appointed or elected positions of power, whether kin or ally. Personal and corporate assets of the culprits and immediate relatives are confiscated and turned over to the National Treasury. The President issues an order to all government agencies and corporations to conduct a crash course in good governance with a caveat that all who fail are booted out of the service or put in a freezer. The President engages the support of the private sector to provide oversight, third party evaluation and monitoring of infrastructure projects deemed critical from awarding to full project implementation. Calm is restored.

Scenario Two — The President resigns.

Following constitutional processes, the vice president assumes office. Heads roll in the government bureaucracy based on previous loyalties. An immediate revamp of the cabinet and government leadership is initiated guided primarily by the heretofore opposition party and regional alliances.

The country veers towards China as the US freezes all military and economic support to the country. The country gives up all its rights over the disputed waters of the West Philippine Sea. The US dollar is replaced by the renminbi as the country’s official primary reserve. Inflation soars as the dollar exchange rate tumbles notwithstanding higher interest rates. The economy and stock market collapse as investors, publicly listed companies and prospective issuers sit it out to wait for pronouncements on the policies of the new powers that be, which will likely only have a short lived life until 2028. Chaos ensues.

Scenario Three — Military led junta takes over the helm of government with a puppet businessman as the nominal President. The US alliance will flourish and more bases will be established but true democracy is dead. Business is restored as the dollar peso exchange rate is revived. New investments and the stock market bloom. The economy regains its growth trajectory. Long live totalitarianism and Uncle Sam!

Note: The above is strictly fictional and not based on true characters. Any coincidences and similarities to persons, living or expired, are purely coincidental.

Until next week… OBF!!!