Q1 growth likely 6% at most
Moderate gains for non-oil imports in February probably resulted from cautious business sentiment, especially among respondents in the manufacturing sector
Text size
Moderate gains for non-oil imports in February probably resulted from cautious business sentiment, especially among respondents in the manufacturing sector
Economists and financial market analysts project the economy to have expanded by 5.7 percent to 6 percent in the first quarter due to robust private consumption and higher exports of goods.
According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the forecast range is better than the 5.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year.
HSBC economist Aris Dacanay said growth must have reached 6 percent as businesses strategized against the Trump tariffs.
“Goods exports should have improved with how importers and manufacturers from all over frontloaded their purchases to build their inventories up in anticipation of US tariffs,” he said.
Dacanay shared that electronics manufacturers boosted production by about 50 percent between January and February compared to the same period last year.
He added that net sales of food manufacturing also grew by 8.2 percent, surpassing the average growth of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter last year.
“We think the strong sales in food manufacturing were also a telltale sign that household consumption has finally improved,” Dacanay said.
Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong and Co., forecast the same overall economic growth level, saying that banks’ lower interest rates should drive household and government spending.
“This should be impacted by the total 75-basis point cut to the Central Bank’s policy rate last year,” he said.
“Midterm election spending should provide the lift,” Ravelas continued.
While domestic consumption remains robust, Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation economist Patrick Ella said external demand for many other goods must have softened, bringing economic growth to 5.9 percent.
“The first-quarter growth could have been over 6 percent, but the external demand was slowed by the changing tariff environment,” he said.
Union Bank of the Philippines economist Carlo Asuncion said economic growth must have settled lower at 5.7 percent as manufacturing slowed in March amid global economic uncertainty from Trump tariffs.
“The deterioration of Philippine manufacturing conditions in March for the first time in 19 months was a notable downside catalyst,” he said.
According to S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index, the country’s factory output contracted to 49.4 in March from an expansion mark of 51.
Goods exports should have improved with how importers and manufacturers from all over frontloaded their purchases to build their inventories up in anticipation of US tariffs.
“Moderate gains for non-oil imports in February probably resulted from cautious business sentiment, especially among respondents in the manufacturing sector,” Asuncion said.
Asuncion added that banks’ loan incomes, “while positive in real terms, started easing off in February with nominal loan growth peaking in January.”
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas suspended cutting its policy rate to 5.75 percent in February due to trade uncertainties. To support economic growth, the policy-making Monetary Board resumed the rate reduction in April to 5.5 percent after March inflation slowed to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in February.
The national statistics agency will announce the growth data for the first quarter on Thursday, 8 May.
