Less rain seen as El Niño looms

The Philippines is expected to experience less rainfall as El Niño develops in the first quarter of 2027, raising concerns over water supplies and agriculture.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration weather specialist Dan Villamil said the projected El Niño is expected to suppress rainfall in the Western Pacific, including the Philippines, while bringing more rain to the Eastern Pacific.

El Niño is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern partly identified through changes in ocean temperatures.

Villamil explained that warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific tend to result in cooler ocean temperatures and less cloud formation in the Western Pacific.

Thunderstorm clouds are responsible for bringing rain to the Western Pacific, including the Philippines. With fewer clouds forming during El Niño, rainfall is expected to decline.

“When it comes to cases like these, our rainfall [in the Philippines] is lower than normal,” Villamil said in a DZBB radio interview on Sunday.

Less rain, higher temperatures

Villamil said rainfall in October is expected to be below normal, although rain will still occur.

He said the projected El Niño has been described as “very strong” because of the higher-than-normal sea surface temperature anomaly observed in the Central Pacific.

For the Philippines, reduced rainfall is expected to be the primary effect, while higher temperatures will be a secondary consequence of reduced cloud cover.

“The primary effect of El Niño on us is really rainfall, while higher temperatures are only a secondary effect because there are not many clouds blocking the heat in our area,” Villamil said.

The dry season normally begins from March to April, when rainfall is already lower. With El Niño projected during the first quarter of 2027, Villamil said conditions could become even drier, potentially affecting water availability.

He advised the agriculture sector to plant drought-resistant crops that require less water in anticipation of possible water shortages.

“Less rainfall, higher temperatures are what we will experience,” he said.