Department of Science and Technology (DoST) Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. warned that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault could kill more than 50,000 people in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, underscoring the need for stronger disaster preparedness following the recent magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Mindanao.
Speaking in a radio interview, Solidum said the deadly earthquake that struck offshore Sarangani on 8 June should serve as a reminder of the devastation a major quake could bring to the country’s most densely populated region.
He stressed that the magnitude 7.8 quake in Mindanao originated offshore, limiting the extent of destructive ground shaking in populated areas.
“But if that had happened on land, more buildings would have collapsed or been destroyed, making it far more dangerous,” Solidum said.
The DoST chief said experts consider a magnitude 7.2 earthquake from the West Valley Fault as the strongest likely earthquake directly affecting Metro Manila, commonly referred to as “The Big One.”
According to government estimates, such an event could result in more than 30,000 deaths in Metro Manila alone, with fatalities potentially rising by another 20,000 when surrounding provinces are included.
Solidum also pointed to the Manila Trench as another potential source of a major earthquake that could generate shaking comparable to or even stronger than the recent Sarangani quake.
‘Drop, cover, hold’
Meanwhile, monitoring stations in General Santos City and Davao Occidental recorded 6,233 aftershocks as of 15 June, ranging from magnitude 1.2 to 6.4. Of these, 1,496 were plotted and 78 were felt.
The Sarangani earthquake, which occurred at a depth of 33 kilometers, was caused by subduction along the Cotabato Trench and generated destructive Intensity VII shaking in General Santos City.
Despite the risks, Solidum emphasized that preparedness remains the most effective protection against earthquake disasters.
He urged homeowners, builders and local governments to ensure strict compliance with building codes and conduct structural assessments of existing structures.
He also reminded the public to follow the “drop, cover and hold” procedure during earthquakes instead of rushing outdoors.
“The very first thing you need to secure is your body and your head to prevent them from being hit by falling debris,” Solidum said.
