The certainty dividend

The certainty dividend | Daily Tribune

But consumption and services alone cannot sustain long-term economic development. A nation grows not merely by spending but by building. This is where the warning signs emerge.

Agriculture contracted by 0.2 percent while industry declined by 0.1 percent. Industry includes manufacturing, mining, utilities, and construction — the sectors that create productive capacity, generate higher-quality jobs, and improve competitiveness. When these sectors stagnate, future growth inevitably slows.

The most alarming figure is Gross Capital Formation, which fell by 3.3 percent. This measures investments in factories, machinery, equipment, warehouses, roads, bridges, ports, airports and digital infrastructure. In simple terms, it reflects what the country is building today to generate income tomorrow. A decline in investment means fewer factories are being constructed, fewer machines are being purchased, and fewer infrastructure projects are moving forward.

The construction figures reveal an even more telling story. Private corporations increased construction spending by 5.3 percent while households expanded residential construction by 3.6 percent. Businesses and families continue to invest despite uncertainty. The collapse occurred in government construction, which plunged by 31.5 percent.

This matters because infrastructure spending has historically been one of the strongest drivers of economic growth. Roads reduce logistics costs. Railways improve productivity. Ports and airports attract investment. Irrigation systems strengthen agriculture. Flood control projects protect lives, property, and businesses. Digital infrastructure expands access to markets and opportunities.

When public construction stalls, the consequences ripple across the economy. Yet economics does not operate in a vacuum. Behind every investment decision lies a less tangible but equally important factor: confidence.

Today, the country finds itself in a prolonged period of political uncertainty. The public is confronted daily with controversies involving the Senate leadership dispute, the impeachment proceedings against a high-ranking official, issues relating to the International Criminal Court, questions surrounding budget allocations, and a growing number of politically significant petitions before the Supreme Court.

These are legitimate issues in any democracy and must be resolved through constitutional processes. However, when major questions remain unsettled for extended periods, uncertainty grows. Investors do not simply evaluate economic statistics. They also assess institutional stability, policy predictability, and the ability of government to provide a clear direction.

Businesses can adapt to taxes, regulations, and even inflation. What they struggle with is uncertainty. When political questions remain unresolved, investors often postpone expansion plans, delay capital expenditures, and adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

This is why the Supreme Court’s role has become especially important at this juncture. The Court is not expected to resolve political disagreements. Its duty is to resolve constitutional and legal questions.

But when issues of national significance have reached the tribunal, timely and definitive rulings become critical not only for the rule of law but also for national stability. The Court cannot simply wait for events to overtake the controversy until the passage of time renders the issues moot and academic.

Rather, it must provide clear and authoritative guidance on the constitutional questions before it, so that lingering ambiguities are settled, future disputes are avoided, and similar crises do not recur under circumstances that may prove even more damaging to the nation.

Whatever the Court ultimately decides — and whoever benefits from those decisions — clarity is preferable to prolonged uncertainty. In every functioning democracy, institutions render decisions, parties accept the outcome, and the nation moves forward. The strength of democratic governance lies not in unanimous agreement but in broad respect for constitutional processes.

Such clarity would help restore predictability to governance. Predictability strengthens public trust. Trust builds confidence. Confidence encourages investment. Investment creates jobs, raises productivity, and fuels sustainable growth.

What then must be done?

In the short term, government must accelerate the implementation of infrastructure projects, particularly those already funded and approved. Priority should be given to transportation networks, energy facilities, irrigation systems, and flood control projects subject to strict transparency and accountability.

In the medium term, the country must strengthen agriculture and manufacturing. Agriculture requires modern irrigation, climate-resilient technologies, post-harvest facilities, and improved logistics. Manufacturing needs lower energy costs, streamlined regulations, industrial clustering, and stronger integration into regional supply chains.

In the long term, the Philippines must pursue a national competitiveness agenda that transcends political cycles. Infrastructure planning should continue regardless of changing administrations. Education and workforce development must align with future industries. Energy policy must prioritize affordability, reliability, and sustainability. Institutions must become stronger, more transparent and more predictable.

The first-quarter numbers tell us that Filipinos remain resilient. Consumers continue to spend, businesses continue to invest, and exports continue to perform. But the data also warn that the nation is investing less in its future.

To reverse the slowdown, we must rebuild confidence on two fronts: by restoring momentum in infrastructure, agriculture, and industry, and by restoring institutional stability through the timely resolution of major political and constitutional disputes.

Economic growth is ultimately not measured by what we consume today but by what we build for tomorrow. And nations build best when their institutions provide the certainty, stability, and confidence that allow citizens and investors alike to look beyond the crises of the moment and invest in the future.