Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum said Saturday that farmers must review planting schedules to anticipate the effects of El Niño later in the year.

In an interview with DZRH, Solidum said that according to PAGASA, rainfall levels may still be normal by June, but 11 provinces may already experience below-normal rainfall by July.

“August and September may appear rainy again, but by October, around 49 provinces are expected to have below-normal rainfall,” Solidum said in Filipino.

By November, Solidum revealed that some areas may also fall under the “way below normal” category, which makes rainfall more variable, especially in Northern Luzon, where rainfall could become significantly below normal, with Visayas and Mindanao experiencing below-normal rainfall.

The secretary said effects become more apparent during the last quarter of the year, as the southwest monsoon brings winds and moisture from the Indian Ocean from July to September.

“Even if El Niño is present in the Pacific, the rains brought by the monsoon can temporarily offset its effects. Toward the end of the year, however, the severe impacts become more noticeable,” Solidum added.

Solidum explained that the “below normal” category means a 41 percent to 80 percent chance of average rainfall, and “way below normal” stands at 40 percent of the usual rainfall measured by rain gauges.

“In practical terms, this means there will not be enough water supply coming from rainfall. So, if you are planting crops, you may need to reschedule your planting season or ensure there is adequate irrigation for your farms,” the secretary said.

Solidum reiterated that the shortage of water during below-normal conditions, especially during the way-below-normal category, must be understood and studied to ensure adequate water supply.

Furthermore, Solidum asserted that DOST-PAGASA is consistently conducting meetings with major stakeholders and agencies such as the DA, DOE, and other departments, including the media, to provide alerts on climate outlooks.

Solidum said that weather forecasts are reviewed every six months for the public to receive early warnings, which can allow farmers to adjust their plans and improve preparations for the effects of El Niño.