I strongly feel that the impeachment complaints filed against the President will not succeed. Why? Because there is no reason to convict him. He is about to finish his term and is no longer allowed to seek re-election. For all intents and purposes, he would no longer be a threat to any aspirant once he leaves office. So, there is no need to perpetually disqualify him.

Besides, he still wields control and influence over Congress, considering he is the President. In fact, he is not yet entering the proverbial “lame duck” phase, which should take place at the very tail end of his term. He can still pull punches and even dictate how the game should be played.

Unlike former President Estrada, there is no value in replacing him at this stage of his leadership. If he is removed, he will be replaced by Sara, and that is something her detractors in Congress would not allow to happen. 

Unless their intention is to remove both of them — which, by the way, is extremely difficult, if not utterly impossible, to pull off — they would not allow her to become the next Chief Executive and use her new office to get the presidency in 2028.

Certainly, the only reason Marcos would be impeached and convicted is if a majority of the members of both houses turn their backs on him and shift their allegiance to the Vice President, which is remotely possible at this time because, as I said, he is still not seen as a lame-duck leader. 

It would have been different, of course, if impeachment proceedings were done in his last year in office. By then, legislators would most likely gravitate toward Sara, assuming her showing in the surveys remains strong.

To be honest, it is the filing of impeachment complaints against the Vice President that makes better sense because she is a front-runner and continues to be a threat who can surely give other candidates a run for their money. Removing her chances is obviously the way to go. The only problem is it might be too late by this time to do that.

Unlike last year, when Congress was still controlled by the former speaker and the administration’s grip on power was still considerably tight, the situation now is different, the narratives are no longer the same, and the momentum has undeniably shifted. In fact, the seemingly respectful demeanor of the congressmen when she attended the budget deliberations late last year buttresses this.

Anyway, everything is still up in the air. The probability that both impeachments would not fly is high, but who really knows? But if there is one thing our people should realize, it is the reality that impeachment is nothing but a mere political exercise — a numbers game meant simply to remove, not punish. It is not about accountability but about weaponizing it to crush a political enemy. No more. No less.