The US special forces’ surprise military action in the early hours of 3 January 2026 to capture Venezuela’s sitting president, Nicolas Maduro, following widespread air strikes on Caracas has spawned a geopolitical conundrum that has world leaders — both US allies as well as its traditional enemies Russia, China, and Iran — trying to figure out what happens next and what it means for their respective countries.

Already, there have been volumes of print and air analyses by political scientists of various stripes and shapes, but no one really knows how this will play out. Let me join the fray with particular focus on what it could mean for the Philippines.

What impact does the unilateral action taken by the US have on the geopolitical frontlines?

Already, there has been an immediate harsh backlash of condemnation from the Latin American neighbors of Venezuela with socialist leanings, particularly Cuba, Bolivia, Colombia, and Nicaragua, which all have close political and economic ties to the adversarial troika of Russia, China, and Iran and which have loudly echoed the excoriation of the US.

On the other side, countries holding on to the apron strings of Uncle Sam, i.e., Trinidad and Tobago, Dominican Republic, Grenada, and the US territories of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, have kept from engaging in criticism and have stayed largely mum.

However, almost all United Nations member countries, including NATO, which is an important partner of the US, have rebuked America for its flagrant violation of international law.

The nations, including the Philippines, were unanimous about all states upholding the rule of law to settle disputes and using diplomacy over the law of the strongest. The latter concern has sent a chilling message to small countries currently embroiled in disputes with much larger and more powerful ones. For the strong ones, the US having its way militarily with a smaller independent nation could serve as a justifiable blueprint for similar action in resolving their own conflicts.

Such a scenario is particularly worrisome for us because it would be applicable to our own squabble with China over the West Philippine Sea. The Red Dragon’s recent aggressive saber-rattling and brazen show of overwhelming air power against Taiwan has become more ominous, and should hostilities arise, our EDCA bases will likely draw us into their conflict because of America’s pledge to defend Taiwan from any attack.

With the US and China in conflict, it will be impossible for the Philippines to remain neutral. On one hand, China is our biggest trading partner, while Uncle Sam has pledged to support us militarily, which we most definitely badly need.

We will have to choose a side that, either way, will cause a quagmire of problems for us. Given our historical, filial, and cultural ties with America, we will have very little choice but to take the side of the US.

Apart from the political fallout, the economic front also bears watching because of the possible adverse repercussions on the energy market. The price of oil will surely soar while supply chains will be severely disrupted, a double whammy for us of inflation and dry gasoline stations, long blackouts reminiscent of the 1990s energy crisis.

This sequence of events is the last thing we need given our domestic crisis of brewing hopelessness over our corruption-riddled society and the people’s increasing loss of faith in the ability of the political leadership to clean up the mess.

The bottom line for us and certainly for the rest of the world is that the capture of narco kingpin Maduro was not enough of a trade-off to justify the unmitigated military attack on Caracas, the forcible takeover of Venezuela’s oil, and the ensuing instability that the world now faces.

In closing, allow me to share a parting thought regarding the constant inequity of nations in the geopolitical arena we have seen throughout the history of the world.

There have always been and will probably always be countries that are at a tremendous disadvantage, militarily and economically, compared to the larger, more powerful nations. But there is a comforting thought for the weak that can be found in the Book of Daniel in the Old Testament written 2,500 years ago which speaks of empires that rise, rule the world and the weak at will, but because of arrogance and hubris, eventually fall and suffer the same fate that has befallen all empires.

Until next week… OBF!

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