With the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) still holding off on giving commercial clearance for African swine fever (ASF) vaccines, the hog industry is left in limbo — and experts say it could take up to three years before things go back to normal.

“This crisis will likely last for another two to three years,” said Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa during a radio interview on Saturday.

De Mesa explained that they’re expecting the FDA to approve the vaccines later this year. Once that happens, the Department of Agriculture (DA) plans to roll out an aggressive hog repopulation program aimed at restoring pork production to pre-ASF levels by 2028.

For now, hog raisers — especially those in key pork-producing provinces near Metro Manila like Batangas and Bulacan — are still struggling with the devastating impact of ASF, which has cost the industry billions in losses.

On a brighter note, De Mesa said the controlled vaccination programs in some areas are showing promising results.

Meanwhile, newly appointed FDA chief Paolo Teston has promised to raise the bar at the agency, saying he’s committed to taking real action — not just making empty promises — to speed up processes like the ASF vaccine clearance.

But it’s not just hog farmers who are feeling the heat. Consumers are also hurting, as pork prices continue to climb — in some markets reaching over P420 per kilo, way above the Department of Agriculture’s suggested retail price of P380.

The DA has since suspended the enforcement of the price cap, acknowledging that it’s nearly impossible to control prices under current conditions.

“It’s really just basic supply and demand,” said DA Undersecretary Constante Palabrica. “We’ve lost a significant number of hogs due to ASF, and with the heightened demand — especially with the elections ongoing — it’s difficult to keep prices in check.”

He added that the department is now exploring ways to adjust its strategy to help stabilize pork prices in the coming months.