The conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte is unlike to happen, especially with the fresh set of senators expected to take their oaths on 30 June.

Based on the partial and unofficial tally from the Commission on Elections, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go is poised to secure another six-year term after topping the senatorial race.

Trailing closely behind are former Senator Bam Aquino, Senator Bato dela Rosa, ACT-CIS Partylist Rep. Erwin Tulfo, and former Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan.

Also part of the so-called "Magic 12" are former Senators Panfilo “Ping” Lacson and Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, SAGIP Party-list Representative Rodante Marcoleta, Senator Pia Cayetano, and Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar.

Reelectionist Senators Imee Marcos and Lito Lapid also secured spots in the top 12, with a margin of less than half a million votes over veteran broadcaster Ben Tulfo, Senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., Makati City Mayor Abby Binay, and former Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos.

If the current Magic 12 standings are maintained until the Commission on Elections officially proclaims the winners, Duterte’s conviction becomes increasingly unlikely.

To convict Duterte, the Senate—sitting as an impeachment court—must reach a two-thirds majority, or at least 16 out of 24 senators.

Go, Dela Rosa, and Marcoleta all ran under the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino–Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), chaired by former president Rodrigo Duterte.

All three have publicly declared their support for the Vice President and vowed to protect her should they secure Senate seats.

Marcos and Villar, meanwhile, were publicly endorsed by Duterte. Just before the 12 May polls, PDP-Laban formally adopted them as guest candidates in its senatorial slate.

The party admitted that the last-minute addition of Marcos and Villar was a practical move—to “protect” Duterte from her impending Senate trial.

With Go, Dela Rosa, Marcoleta, Marcos, and Villar expected to vote for acquittal, only four more senators would be needed to block a conviction—potentially coming from non-reelectionist senators.

Among the 12 non-reelectionist senators, Senator Robin Padilla is expected to vote against conviction. He accompanied Duterte during a visit to her detained father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, in The Hague.

Senator Mark Villar may also vote to acquit, especially after the Marcos administration launched an investigation into PrimeWater, a Villar-owned utility company.

The Cayetano siblings may prove pivotal. Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, a former Foreign Affairs Secretary under Duterte, is a known ally.

Though Senator Pia Cayetano ran under the administration-aligned Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, she may follow her brother’s lead, as she has done in previous key Senate votes.

Both Cayetanos abstained from voting on the controversial Maharlika Investment Fund bill. At the time, Senator Pia explained that her brother did not tell her how to vote.

Explaining her abstention, Senator Pia said: her brother did not tell her how to vote on the motion.

Past interviews with other non-reelectionist senators also offer hints as to how they might vote in the trial.

Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada previously hinted at a likely “no” vote, saying impeachment would “only sow divisiveness and distract us from the urgent issues we must collectively address.”

Estrada noted that “impeachment will only sow divisiveness and distract us from the urgent issues we must collectively address.”

His half-brother, Senator JV Ejercito, echoed the sentiment, calling the impeachment move “very divisive.”

“For me, personally, it’s very divisive because we know that impeachment is more political than legal,” Ejercito said in a December interview.

“It’s hard to move forward if the top two officials are bickering because it does not give a good signal, especially in the international community, making it appear that there’s political instability in the country. We are already having a hard time inviting investors, and then there’s this political instability,” he added.

The remarks were made in the wake of a public word war between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Duterte in November.

If all 11 identified senators vote against conviction, that would be more than enough to block Duterte’s removal from office.

Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives on 5 February, with 215 lawmakers—more than two-thirds of its members—voting in favor of the motion.

Her conviction, which would result in removal from office and disqualification from holding future public positions, is now pending in the Senate.

Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero earlier announced that the upper chamber will convene as the impeachment court on 30 July, despite public calls for the Senate to act on the matter sooner.