If indeed the “Mid-Election Campaign Sprint Action Plan” and “Oplan Horus” exist, both documents would depict a bumbling effort that worsened rather than improved the chances of the administration’s Senate bets.

The Senate polls have gained added significance due to Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment, the trial of which will be conducted by the Senate court. Removing the Vice President would be futile unless the administration secures a majority seat in the Senate.

Conviction requires a two-thirds vote. If convicted, the sanctions that can be meted out are censure, reprimand, removal from office, and prohibition from holding government office.

Horus, an Egyptian deity of kings, was supposedly the name of an operation, as listed in the recent Senate foreign relations panel report, that sought to neutralize the Duterte family’s political influence ahead of the 2025 midterm elections.

The document, purportedly signed by a House leader, outlined the campaign strategy of the administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition.

It has been cited as evidence in the Senate report for the hurried transfer of former President Rodrigo Duterte to the clutches of the International Criminal Court and the operation to impeach VP Sara.

The action plan, in turn, surfaced last April, detailing a strategic blueprint for the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas — a coalition of parties including the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP), Lakas-CMD, Nacionalista Party, National Unity Party (NUP), and Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) — for the midterm polls.

The document’s leak coincided with Mr. Duterte’s arrest on 11 March for crimes against humanity related to his drug war, his subsequent surrender to the ICC, and the oust-Sara Duterte movement.

The document revealed a deliberate administration strategy to marginalize the Dutertes, who remain influential, particularly in Davao and among populist supporters.

The operation’s goals included Sara Duterte’s impeachment, potentially leading to her removal and lifetime ban from public office; the disqualification of Duterte-backed candidates, particularly in Davao and other strongholds, to weaken their electoral influence; and coordination with the ICC and domestic agencies to secure an arrest warrant for the former chief executive.

While the document listed “encouraging progress” in undermining the Dutertes, a year after the operation’s launch, following Duterte’s arrest and transfer to the ICC and the filing of an impeachment complaint against VP Sara, it acknowledged a surge in pro-Duterte sentiment and a drop in the administration’s trust rating.

Horus then crafted a communication deflection strategy to divert public attention to the West Philippine Sea tension and alleged Chinese disinformation campaign, highlighting alleged foreign interference in Philippine politics to discredit the Duterte allies.

Anti-Duterte forces branded both the combined action and operation plans a hoax, but the events that have transpired were all within the scope of the supposed campaign against the Dutertes.

It is impossible to imagine that the events that sought to contain the Vice President and the former president happened without a grand purpose.

The plan was similar to the templates against former President Joseph Estrada, former Vice President Jojo Binay, and Chief Justice Renato Corona who were all political targets. Filipinos who had gone through the ouster movements would not fail to recognize the familiarity of the transpiring events.

The motive is there, and whatever exotic name was attached to it, the operations clearly were meant to curb the Dutertes’ influence, given Sara’s potential 2028 presidential run and the family’s enduring popularity in vote-rich Davao City.

The timing of Rodrigo’s ICC arrest and Sara’s impeachment aligns with a pattern of political pressure, which does not need a confidential document to verify its existence.

The use of “Horus” as a codename added a mythic dimension, consistent with scheming groups’ penchant for dramatic codenames that many in the past regimes came up with for their political preservation.