In the months leading up to the May 2022 National Presidential Elections, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) made a campaign promise to lower the price of rice to P20 per kilo for all Filipinos. This promise became the cornerstone of his campaign platform amid rising concerns about food security and inflation. PBBM tied his pledge to broader agricultural reforms, including support for farmers, modernization of farming practices, and reducing reliance on imports. When he won the presidency, he even took on the role of Secretary of Agriculture.

It may have sounded like a good idea at the time, as it seemingly reinforced his commitment to fulfilling his campaign promise. However, even then, it felt like a risky move, considering that he had no background or proven track record in agriculture. More crucially, as Secretary of Agriculture, he would have no political cover or excuse should he fail to deliver on his promise.

Recently, Agriculture Secretary Francis Tiu Laurel Jr. announced the government’s P20 per kilo rice program, which will initially be available in the Visayas region. The program is a subsidized initiative aimed at fulfilling President Marcos’s 2022 campaign promise to make rice more affordable for Filipinos until the end of PBBM’s term in 2028.

Currently, the program only covers the Visayas. The expansion to Luzon and Mindanao depends on resolving logistical and funding issues. The P20 per kilo rice program is available only to families from marginalized sectors, indigents, or low-income communities, with a five-kilo or 10-kilo per week cap depending on the beneficiary classification. However, during the campaign, no such qualifications were made. Suffice to say, the present program does not fully deliver on the promised universal affordability.

The strongest argument against the program is its sustainability. Subsidies alone cannot maintain P20 per kilo rice without structural reforms to lower production costs (e.g., irrigation, cheaper inputs). Assuming the P3.5–4.5 billion budget is only good until the end of 2025, continuing the subsidy program until the end of 2028 would be unsustainable and costly for the government, especially if global rice prices rise.

If this belated attempt to follow through on PBBM’s campaign promise is aimed at improving his numbers and resuscitating his plummeting approval and trust ratings, it may fall short of achieving its objective for several reasons.

If the Marcos administration is going to make rice affordable at P20 per kilo by simply paying for the difference between the market price and the promised P20 with a direct subsidy, this should have been done much earlier, while PBBM was still serving as Agriculture Secretary, in lieu of the Ayuda sa Kapos Ang Kita Program (AKAP). Doing so then would have cemented PBBM’s credibility. Even if implemented on a limited scale, it would have been an acceptable effort at the time.

But why just now? And why only in the Visayas, just two weeks before the midterm elections? Political tensions, particularly between Marcos and Duterte, amplify distrust and make voters question every good intention. While the P20 rice program is a significant initiative, it may have come a little too late. As we always say, timing is everything.