The $305-billion economy of the Philippines in the past two years under President Duterte was seen capitalizing on the rash of reforms adopted thus far and further expand a landscape considered one of the most promising in the region.
This was based on official data showing trend growth approximating 7 percent in terms of local output or the gross domestic product (GDP) this year alone and the promise of sustained expansion down the line provided the reformist track is similarly sustained.
As a consequence, Presidential Spokesperson Harry S. Roque on Monday said Filipinos could look forward to a perceptively better quality of life as the Chief Executive marks his second year in Malacañang.
There should be “better services for Filipinos during President Duterte’s second year” in office, he said of what lies immediately ahead when even more structural and policy changes are expected.
President Duterte has repeatedly demonstrated a complete aversion to official corruption and criminality and had been willing to pay what political price had to be paid to drive the message home.
In the economic realm, the President, with the full backing of the economic managers, started a reformist initiative designed to inject incremental revenues to the nation’s coffers to help underwrite growth-boosting projects and programs aggregating some P1.8 trillion by the time his term ends in 2022.
The most prominent of these pertain to the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion or TRAIN Law that initially generated optimistic readings from the country’s creditors and the investing public as a whole given that some 70 percent of anticipated revenues were set aside for a multi-year infrastructure buildup program.
The economic managers would later forecast greater GDP expansion averaging 6.7 percent this year and have not given up on growth as high as 8 percent no matter the gathering momentum against the TRAIN.
Roque reiterated the TRAIN has made it possible for the economy to lift the so-called tax effort, or tax revenue as percent of GDP, to a 10-year high of P2.25 trillion on its inaugural year of implementation.
It was noted that when then President Aquino took over from President Arroyo, the economy would slip from a high growth rate exceeding 8 percent in one quarter to more or less 3 percent in subsequent quarters.
In the months following the adoption of the TRAIN Law, investor confidence in the economy would soar in terms of proposed investments exceeding P195 billion in the first four months this year alone. While these are not actual placements that generate real jobs for Filipinos and tax revenue for the national coffers, such are an indication of the regard the investing community has for the Philippines, Roque explained.
Foreign direct investments or FDI, a lead economic indicator showing actual bricks-and-mortar businesses put up by overseas entrepreneurs, similarly expanded to $2.2 billion in the first three months this year from only $1.5 billion a year ago.
“Efforts by the Duterte administration to afford all Filipinos the government service they deserve continue to be unrelenting,” Roque said.
He particularly said that of the 35 big-ticket projects rolled out under the Build, Build, Build program and stamped with approval by the National Economic Development Authority or NEDA, 16 were certain to have been completed by 2022 and only 19 were to be pursued by the next Malacañang occupant.
Roque also cited significantly higher growth in overseas visitor arrivals aggregating 642,757 in the first quarter this year alone, versus only 574,065 a year earlier.
As a result, foreign visitor arrivals for the period grew by 15 percent to 2.049 million from only 1.784 million last year.
It was noted President Duterte’s critics dwell on the fact that when he took over as Chief Executive in 2016, GDP growth swung from as high as 7.1 percent to as low as 6.5 percent over a 12-month stretch.
In the succeeding quarters, GDP expansion similarly swung as high as 7.2 percent to a low of 6.5 percent before accelerating again to 6.8 percent in the quarter ended March this year.
The proposition was for the President to lead a country beset by domestic and foreign volatility swings and for him to achieve a more stable output performance instead.
The President’s men led by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Nestor A. Espenilla Jr. has since asserted that continued and sustainable growth remain within expectations not just this year averaging more or less 7 percent but for the near term as well.
Espenilla based his optimism on actual GDP expansion recast to 6.8 percent in 2017 from 6.7 percent initially, a performance that helped extend to the BSP the policy space to support overall economic expansion.
This means the central bank has sufficient monetary equipment to combat rising inflation that tends to dampen growth without having to hit both households and businesses with prospectively higher cost of money in the form of higher interest rates.
Thus far the economy has cooperated given that inflation, while elevated at 4.6 percent as of latest, was seen to moderate over the near term and approximate the target ceiling this year of only 4 percent, according to Espenilla.
Elevated inflation is generally unwelcome as it makes for more costly purchase of services or goods and a disincentive for savers.
Roque summed up the first two years under President Duterte as “generally fruitful.”
“Much has been accomplished but much more needs to be done. This is a work in progress to achieve and actualize the promise of a genuine and meaningful change for the Filipino people. The President cannot do it alone. Let us help the Chief Executive fulfill his goal of building a nation where opportunities abound and where citizens are empowered to realize their aspirations,” Roque said.
(The final installment takes up the Duterte administration’s independent foreign policy shift, the pursuit of improved welfare of overseas Filipino workers (OFW), reforms in the energy sector and upgrading of military and police capabilities).
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