PAGASA warns of mixed weather conditions
Three prevailing climate and weather drivers — the northeast monsoon, easterlies and a “very strong” El Niño phenomenon — will dictate weather conditions across the Philippines leading into Christmas, the state weather bureau reported Tuesday.
Speaking at a media forum, Ana Liza Solis, assistant weather services chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, noted that the country will experience contrasting weather patterns as the holiday season approaches.
“Let us expect that the northeast monsoon, together with the easterlies and the prevailing very strong El Niño, will be the dominant weather and climate systems that will affect us as we approach Christmas,” Solis said.
PAGASA recently declared the onset of the northeast monsoon, locally known as hanging amihan, which brings cooler air, periodic cold surges and rough sea conditions across large parts of the country.
Solis cited that while the monsoon is not yet at its peak, it will continue to lower nighttime temperatures even as daytime heat remains elevated due to El Niño.
Weather forecasters are also monitoring the potential for one additional tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before the end of 2026.
At least 19 tropical cyclones have entered PAR so far this year, with typhoon “Samuel” marking the first for November.
“There is still a possibility of one more typhoon until December 2026, and usually, it may fall under the typhoon or super typhoon category,” Solis said, adding that there remains a equal chance no further storms form before year-end.
PAGASA reported that while extreme heat index levels are currently isolated, dangerous heat index readings are projected to spread during the first quarter of 2027. Heat index values are categorized into four bands: Caution (27–32°C), Extreme Caution (33–41°C), Danger (42–51°C) and Extreme Danger (52°C and above).
Solis cautioned against interpreting extreme heat index spikes above 52°C as absolute air temperatures, explaining that hyper-saturated humidity preceding localized atmospheric downdrafts often triggers rain or thunderstorms that dissipate the heat.