PAGASA warns of high heat index in early 2027

A climatologist from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned Tuesday that high heat index levels could become more widespread in the first quarter of 2027, ahead of the warm and dry season.

“Because currently, the areas affected by high heat index levels are not that widespread, but when the first quarter comes, before the warm and dry season arrives, we may already experience high heat index levels,” PAGASA Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said during the QCJI forum on Tuesday.

Solis warned that prolonged exposure to high temperatures could lead to heat-related illnesses, including heat cramps and heat stroke.

“This [high heat indexes] could lead to heat cramps, and if we continue to be exposed to the heat of the sun, there is also potential risk of what we call heat stroke. This is what we should prepare for,” she added.

In the Philippines, the heat index is classified into four levels: Caution (27 to 32 degrees Celsius), Extreme Caution (33 to 41 degrees Celsius), Danger (42 to 51 degrees Celsius), and Extreme Danger (52 degrees Celsius and above).

However, Solis cautioned against treating readings exceeding 52 degrees Celsius, such as 53, 54 or 55 degrees Celsius, as absolute values.

She explained that extremely high heat index readings are often followed by rainfall or localized thunderstorms.

“Because when there is local thunderstorm activity, the thunderstorm cycle will really have updrafts and downdrafts. Those downdrafts will cause very high humidity, which may become supersaturated and possibly result in rainfall or local thunderstorms,” she said.

“It does not mean that when our heat index is high, around 55, we will experience extreme heat, because local thunderstorm activities may occur shortly afterward,” Solis added.

As of 31 October 2026, PAGASA reported that five provinces had experienced meteorological drought, while 11 provinces and highly urbanized cities were experiencing dry spell conditions. Around 10 other provinces were classified under dry conditions.