Throughout human history, earthquakes have repeatedly resulted in severe loss of life and widespread destruction. As urbanization accelerates and more people settle in seismic zones, the responsibility of architects and engineers to incorporate earthquake resilience into their designs becomes increasingly urgent.

In Metro Manila, this urgency is reflected in the looming threat of “The Big One.” Earthquake. Tremor. Upheaval. Metro Manila is a densely populated megacity of over 14 million people situated on what is often described as a ticking geological time bomb.

The West Valley Fault cuts through the metropolis and has the potential to produce a magnitude 7.2 earthquake. Seismological studies indicate that this fault typically moves every 400 to 500 years, with its last major rupture occurring in 1658. This places the region well within the expected recurrence window for a major seismic event — commonly referred to as the “Big One.”

According to the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, a disaster of this scale could instantly claim over 34,000 lives, injure 110,000 people, and collapse thousands of structures. Preparing for such an event is therefore not only a matter of policy, but an urgent necessity for survival.

A major component of preparedness involves the continuous and expanded retrofitting of existing infrastructure. Many of the country’s public buildings identified through government assessments are required to undergo retrofitting as part of preparations for the anticipated “Big One,” a potentially devastating earthquake, according to the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH).

“So far, there’s a retrofitting from DPWH. I think we are structurally prepared,” said Ar. Joel Rico, FPIA-past Philippine Institute of Architects (PIA) national president.

He added that, “the modern condominiums in Metro Manila are ready for the supposed Big One.”

Retrofitting is the agency’s initiative to reinforce existing public buildings and bridges, improving their structural integrity and resilience against seismic activity and the effects of aging.

Although progress has been made, the level of risk associated requires sustained efforts to reinforce both public and private buildings, particularly older structures that may not fully meet current seismic design standards.

Earthquake-resistant design also relies heavily on close collaboration between architects and structural engineers. Engineers provide expertise in structural behavior, load distribution, and material performance, while architects focus on spatial planning, usability, and aesthetics.

Early coordination between both disciplines enables solutions that integrate safety with design intent. As he added that, “we often struggle to sleep during earthquakes” since they understand the vulnerabilities behind common architectural choices.

The “Big One” is a geological certainty — it is not a matter of if it will happen, but when. Metro Manila cannot prevent tectonic activity, but it can lessen its effects through strict enforcement of building codes, coordinated action among local government units and strong disaster preparedness among residents. Although preparing requires significant resources, failing to act would be far more catastrophic, making urgent preparedness measures essential.