The Department of Energy (DOE) said the worst of the recent oil price spike is likely over as global oil markets begin to stabilize, although motorists may have to wait several weeks or even months before pump prices return to pre-war levels.

At a press briefing on Monday, Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said the outlook comes as the DOE set mixed fuel price movements this week. 

Gasoline prices starting tomorrow morning could either remain unchanged or roll back by as much as P1.75 per liter, while diesel prices are expected to increase by P1.57 to P3.57 per liter and kerosene by P1.70 to P3.70 per liter.

“That's good news. The industry is starting to stabilize, and I think it's now just a matter of adjustment until we get back to pre-war price levels,” Garin said.

“But it will take time. It won't happen in just one week or two weeks. It might take a few weeks or a few months. But I think the worst is over, and hopefully we can start adjusting the price as well to adjust to pre-war prices,” she added.

Energy Undersecretary Alessandro Sales said the easing in crude oil prices has yet to be fully reflected in local pump prices because domestic fuel prices are based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the benchmark for refined petroleum products, rather than crude oil prices.

"The average Dubai crude is already below our $80-per-barrel marker. In fact, last week, the average was around $76," Sales said. "But this is not immediately translated into pump prices because our pump prices are pegged to MOPS, or the Mean of Platts Singapore, which is the traded price of gasoline and diesel products."

He said MOPS remains elevated but is expected to ease over the next 1 to 3 months as more oil shipments resume passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Hopefully, within one to three months, magi-stabilize na rin ang MOPS because around 30 percent of delivery volume is already passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Sales said.

He added that supply conditions continue to improve, with Saudi Arabia restoring about 90 percent of its oil production while the United Arab Emirates has returned to full output.

"Saudi Arabia has reported that it is back to about 90 percent of its output level. The United Arab Emirates is already back to 100 percent of its production. These two countries are the biggest producers in the Gulf. And we hope that the price trajectory continues to move downward in the coming months," he said.

The DOE also reported that the country's fuel inventory has improved to 46.5 days as of 3 July, up from about 41 days a week earlier.

Stocks include nearly 44 days of gasoline, almost 44 days of diesel, 177 days of kerosene, almost 85 days of jet fuel, over 36 days of fuel oil, and more than 44 days of LPG.

Meanwhile, LPG consumers received immediate relief this month after prices rolled back by P162.99 for an 11-kilogram cylinder based on the latest Saudi Aramco contract price, with the estimated dealer pickup price ranging from P987 to P1,437.