Consumer confidence was pessimistic even before the escalation of the Middle East conflict, with Filipinos staying wary amid lingering concerns over government corruption, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey.

However, the BSP noted that the level of pessimism indicated in the overall consumer confidence index (CI) during the first quarter of 2026 decreased to -15.8 percent, from -22.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Survey results finalized before Mideast conflict

The survey results, the BSP noted, were finalized before the conflict’s escalation in early March.

“This reflects reduced pessimism as households expected higher earnings, more stable employment, additional income sources, and more family members joining the workforce,” the BSP said.

Still, the fourth-quarter CI reflected heightened concerns over government corruption — particularly the flood control scandal — as well as lower household income and unfavorable weather conditions.

The BSP also reported that the quarter-ahead CI declined from 3.6 percent to 1.8 percent, while the year-ahead CI fell from 11.8 percent to 9.6 percent.

Driven by concerns about graft and corruption

These declines were driven by lingering concerns about graft and corruption, which are seen to undermine the effective delivery of public services, as well as rising inflation — which later spiked to 4.1 percent following the onset of the energy crisis.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.4 percent last year — below the government’s target range and weaker than most forecasts — as the flood control controversy led to reduced infrastructure spending and dampened investor sentiment.

Given that the Philippine economy relies heavily on household consumption — which accounts for about 73 percent of GDP — the continued pessimism reflected in the 2026 consumer CI signals growing caution among households.

This may be further compounded by rising inflation, which the BSP now projects at 6.3 percent for 2026, as higher prices erode purchasing power for the average Filipino.