The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), the country’s sole transmission operator, assured consumers that yellow or red power alerts are unlikely this holiday season, citing sufficient electricity supply.

“Unless there are unforeseen circumstances such as a typhoon or sudden failure of power plants, we do not see any problem with the supply of electricity,” NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza said in an interview with reporters on Wednesday.

Responsible use of electricity

Alabanza, however, reminded consumers that while supply is stable, responsible use of electricity remains important during the holiday peak.

Meanwhile, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) has already warned that rising demand and possible supply disruptions could push electricity prices higher next year.

IEMOP vice president for trading operations Isidro Cacho Jr. said Luzon and Mindanao are expected to remain stable if current supply levels hold.

“When it comes to the Visayas, we are seeing issues because primarily, it has now become dependent on Luzon and Mindanao,” he noted.

The Visayas relies on imported power, making it more vulnerable to price spikes when interconnections are limited.

Preliminary forecast

IEMOP’s preliminary forecast puts average electricity prices at P5 to P6 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in Luzon, P4 to P5 per kWh in Mindanao, and around P6 per kWh in the Visayas, factoring in planned maintenance. Cacho warned that unplanned outages could push prices even higher.

Demand is expected to rise about five percent next year, with Luzon’s peak demand climbing from 14,000 megawatts (MW) to roughly 14,600 MW.

“If we encounter what happened last year, when forced outages reached around 2,000 to 3,000 MW, we will see impacts not just in the Visayas but also in Luzon and Mindanao,” Cacho said.

Scheduled plant maintenance prohibited

He added that scheduled plant maintenance is prohibited during the summer peak, but any forced outages combined with maintenance months could trigger significant price spikes.

While outages have decreased this year, rising demand and Visayas’ import dependence could still drive electricity costs higher if supply interruptions occur.