War and pieces redux

All war is based on deception — Sun Tzu.

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner broke one cardinal rule of the art of war when he revealed our strategy in case of a war — and that is to hold on for 30 days until allied reinforcements arrive. Now the enemy knows — not that it is novel or innovative. Taiwan has the same game plan, more or less.

But the pronouncement is much ado over nothing. No one is going to invade us, not even China. Taiwan is a totally different matter. It is considered a breakaway province by the mainland that must be reunited with the motherland by hook or by crook.

No such claim is being made about us. China launching a land invasion of the Philippines will gain it nothing. Aside from the geo-political angle, Taiwan has the world’s most advanced microchips — the Philippines has nothing but kamote chips.

I had breakfast last week with some Singaporean friends who are insiders in that city-state’s leadership, and they told me that the conventional wisdom within Singapore’s defense circles is that should China finally invade Taiwan, one of the first things the Chinese military will do is launch preemptive strikes against ALL the EDCA sites in the Philippines, since the US has prepositioned Typhon intermediate-range missiles therein capable of hitting targets on the mainland.

“But wouldn’t that trigger the Philippines’ Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States,” I asked. It could, was the reply, but when China attacks Taiwan, they might be at war with the US anyway so what have they got to lose? Besides, China has more to gain: neutralizing American missile assets in the Philippines which will take time to replace.

My longtime friends also said that the Chinese might be willing to gamble that the United States and its allies may not take a fully committed role. The Taiwan Relations Act is ambiguous when it comes to direct US involvement in an invasion of Taiwan. America may prefer to merely supply war materiel to Taiwan instead of actually involving ships and planes manned by Americans.

In the case of the Philippines, the implementation of the MDT will still be subject to a congressional debate in Washington. If China stops at a missile attack on the EDCA sites and makes no effort to land troops on principal Philippine territories, then the US may be disinclined to put any of its troops and military assets in harm’s way.

How the US responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be illuminating. Do you see even one American soldier, ship, or warplane fighting alongside the Ukrainian military?

Methinks that most probably, after destroying the EDCA sites, China will de-escalate as to the Philippines. The United States, already preoccupied with Taiwan, will be loath to open a new front.

And we cannot rely on our other allies to fight a war for us either. The Australian navy is tiny, the French army has never won a war in 150 years, the Japanese military is constitutionally bound to self-defense only, and the other ASEAN countries won’t care — they’re chummy with China.

We will be on our own, in a war not of our doing, with parts of the country in pieces, anticipating an invasion that will never happen. Now that would be funny if it weren’t so tragic.