A lot at stake in U.S. visit

A lot at stake in U.S. visit | Daily Tribune

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s scheduled visit to Washington D.C. from 20 to 22 July marks a crucial diplomatic moment for the Philippines. It will be his first face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump since the latter’s reelection and it comes amid rising tensions over trade tariffs, immigration enforcement, and the South China Sea.

This trip offers both challenges and opportunities as the Philippines seeks to protect its national interests while navigating a shifting global order.

A top agenda item is the 20-percent tariff imposed by the US on Philippine goods, up from 17 percent earlier this year. This sharp increase threatens to undermine Philippine exports and disrupt ongoing defense procurement talks.

The tariffs are part of President Trump’s broader campaign to reduce the American trade deficit with the Philippines, which stood at $4.9 billion in 2024.

For Manila, this new levy is ill-timed and potentially harmful. The government has been planning to purchase US-made F-16 fighter jets and Typhon missile systems to modernize the military, but the cost may become prohibitive if trade relations continue to sour. In Washington, Marcos is expected to push for tariff exemptions or rollbacks — possibly offering increased defense cooperation in return.

Immigration is another sensitive topic. With an estimated 370,000 undocumented Filipinos in the United States, the Philippine government has expressed concern over Trump’s renewed push for mass deportations and stricter visa enforcement.

Many undocumented Filipinos have lived and worked in the US for years, contributing to its economy while supporting families back home through remittances. Marcos will likely appeal for clemency or a legal pathway for these immigrants, a delicate request given Trump’s hardline stance. A breakthrough on this front — such as a targeted relief program or renewed discussions on deferred action-style protections — would be a major win for the Filipino diaspora.

Defense and regional security will round out the talks. With the South China Sea remaining a geopolitical flashpoint, Marcos is expected to seek reaffirmation of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Under his leadership, the Philippines has allowed expanded US access to military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), including holding joint exercises involving missile systems near contested waters.

Washington is likely to reaffirm its “ironclad” commitment to defend the Philippines in the event of armed conflict, particularly given the rising Chinese aggression in the region. This visit will serve as a strong signal to Beijing that Manila is doubling down on its alliance with the US.

There is also a broader context to consider. As the Philippines prepares to chair ASEAN in 2026, Marcos is positioning the country as a regional leader advocating for a legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. With US support, the Philippines could play a pivotal role in unifying Southeast Asian nations against coercive behavior by bigger powers.

In essence, Marcos’ visit is not just about economic or security issues — it is about redefining the Philippines’ place in a rapidly evolving international landscape. Whether seeking relief from tariffs, lobbying for immigrants, or shoring up security guarantees, Marcos must balance diplomacy with assertiveness. For Trump, the visit is a chance to strengthen ties with a key Asian ally while projecting power against China.

The outcome of this trip could reverberate far beyond July — impacting Filipino livelihoods, diaspora communities, and the fragile equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific region.