A breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, brokered by United States President Donald Trump, offers a glimmer of hope for global oil markets shaken by tensions in the Middle East.

For a fuel-importing country like the Philippines, the agreement may signal a modest easing in pump prices after months of volatility.

The Department of Energy (DOE) said Tuesday that while the ceasefire may help calm market jitters, the Philippines must still ensure long-term energy security by diversifying its oil sources.

Shifting away from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, however, comes at a cost.

According to Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo Bellas, importing crude from countries like Canada may offer supply security, but it also means higher prices at the pump.

“For crude oil, the best source for the country’s sole refinery is still the Middle East. Importation from other sources can be an option if Middle East crude becomes inaccessible. But the cost to bring the crude oil from those other sources will definitely be higher vis-a-vis Middle East,” Bellas said Tuesday.

He added that crude quality varies by source, which may affect its suitability for processing at the country’s lone refinery.

As for refined fuel products, Bellas noted that the country currently sources supply from refineries across Asia, which in turn draw crude oil from multiple countries.

“Those refineries have various crude oil sources and may include the US, Canada, and Russia. Refined products from India and the Middle East are also finding homes in Asia, particularly in Singapore,” he said.

“Sourcing refined fuel products from Canada and the US is also possible. But the logistics cost will be a primary concern,” Bellas added.

On price trends, Bellas said domestic fuel prices could still increase next week based on Monday’s Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) trading, which showed an uptick of around P0.75 to P0.95 per liter for diesel and P1.45 to P1.65 for gasoline.

However, he noted that an expected drop in MOPS during Tuesday’s trading could shift the outlook.

“With the expected steep drop in MOPS prices, the projected increase could be reduced or even completely turn negative if the trend continues. But it’s too early to say what will be the outcome,” he said.

Bellas pointed out that diesel MOPS fell by more than $3 per barrel, while gasoline declined by over $0.50 per barrel on Tuesday.

“With this development and following the announcement by US President Trump that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, prices fell sharply in early Asian trading. Should this trend continue, we could see prices making an abrupt U-turn to easing down,” Bellas said.

This week, local pump prices increased by P3.50 per liter for gasoline, P5.20 for diesel, and P4.80 for kerosene.