Analyst warns Philippines faces economic risks from global conflict

The Philippines must strengthen its preparedness measures as tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel escalate, raising concerns over economic stability and national security, a political analyst said.

Prof. Karl Lenin Benigno of Northwestern University said that while the country is far from the conflict zone, it is already feeling indirect effects.

“Yeah, walang direct impact sa Philippines. The war in Iran may not have direct impact in the Philippines, but indirectly, I think it's impacting our economy because of the disruption sa global economy,” he said.

Benigno noted that disruptions in global energy markets are beginning to affect the Philippines, which relies heavily on imported oil.

A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil shipments. Any disruption in the route could tighten supply and drive up fuel prices, with ripple effects on transportation, goods, and services.

“I can see now that our government is on crisis mode… trying to strategize what to do,” he said, referring to efforts to mitigate rising fuel costs.

He said targeted subsidies are being implemented but warned that prolonged increases in oil prices could fuel inflation and strain households.

“If that cannot be controlled, what happens is that the price of goods will rise, the price of services will rise, inflation will occur,” he said.

Beyond economic concerns, Benigno raised possible security risks tied to the Philippines’ alliance with the United States.

“Because we are considered as an American ally, we can also be a target… they do this in public places, public infrastructure, really civilians,” he said.

Despite these risks, he stressed the need for continued diplomatic engagement to prevent escalation.

“So, yeah, I think that we have to continue to engage Iran diplomatically… we have to avoid misinterpretations and escalations,” he said.

He noted that Philippine-flagged vessels may still be allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some reassurance for energy security.

However, the broader geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with divisions among global powers complicating efforts to de-escalate tensions.

Benigno warned that continued attacks on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf could worsen the crisis.

“Iran is targeting Persian Gulf countries' oil infrastructure now… if that continues, it's going to be really disastrous,” he said.

He added that the trajectory of the conflict points toward further escalation rather than resolution.

“I think it's going to escalate… that should be the reason why our government should now consider these scenarios, so that when the worst is going to happen, our government is ready,” he said.

Given the Philippines’ near-total reliance on imported fuel, Benigno urged both national and local governments to prepare contingency plans for prolonged instability.

“The conflict in the Middle East is not de-escalating. It’s escalating,” he said.

As the situation evolves, he stressed that distance offers no guarantee of safety.

“The effects are already being felt. The key now is preparedness,” he added.