A few days before Election Day and we see the Senate’s Magic 12 circle tightening. Coming in strong are the Duterte admin stalwarts Bong Go and Bato de la Rosa, the Tulfo brothers, the action stars Revilla and Lapid.

Outgoing Makati Mayor Abby Binay is set to take over her sister Nancy’s Senate seat. The president and VP tandem bets of Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto from the May 2022 elections are looking good for a comeback to the Senate as sure wins. Pia Cayetano has slipped in rank but is likely to be reelected. That takes care of 10 slots with seven from the Alyansa slate.

What the surveys fail to show is the impact of the Iglesia Ni Cristo’s bloc voting and the “baluarte” votes on the Senate race. Yes, the disclaimers explicitly say the survey rankings do not take into account religious affiliations. But the INC bloc and vote-rich baluartes or strongholds are significant factors that should figure in the statistical analysis of who among those within range has the best chance of making it to the last slots when the margins are thin and surmountable.

Even with the margin of error, I doubt the at least 1.3-million votes of the INC voting as a bloc could be fully accounted for in this race.

Rodante Marcoleta should be in the 12. If Marcoleta is statistically ranked between 14 and 19, he can (and will) easily jump into the magic 12 with the INC endorsement and institutional bloc voting — especially for one of their own.

This is more probable than just possible if none of those ranked between 8 and 16 are also in the official INC voting list. He could even dislodge any one of the vulnerable sure winners who will not get an INC endorsement.

Lapid, Revilla, Binay and Cayetano are in the vulnerable range, but they have Pampanga, Cavite, Makati and Taguig to maintain their lead. Unfortunately, Abalos’s Mandaluyong and Tolentino’s Tagaytay are not enough to boost their numbers given their present rankings.

The Camille Villar situation is interesting. She has the heaviest war chest, a baluarte in Las Piñas, and a surge in numbers from the recent endorsement of VP Sara. Villar would have been higher up the rankings for a sure win but for the PrimeWater issue tainting her in the last few weeks. The last surveys have not yet captured the full impact of the PrimeWater problem on Villar’s numbers.

Manny Pacquiao isn’t coming out on top because unlike in his previous runs, he did not schedule a fight before filing. His hero appeal may have dwindled. Imee Marcos for all her spending on expensive TV ads has not been able to catch a break. Plus she has no solid baluarte to back her this time — no Ilocos and Leyte, or even Davao despite VP Sara’s support.

Willie Revillame could still make it but he’s not been consistent. Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan may not peak in time for 12 May. If at all, Bam has a better chance of making it than Kiko due to his appeal to the youth.

Ultimately, whatever the surveys say, many things can still change between today and Monday when we go out to cast our votes. We, the people, still hold the power to choose the leaders we want making policies and decisions that will determine the kind of society we will have and the life we will lead.