With the 2025 midterm elections fast approaching, the Philippine political landscape is heating up — not just with familiar names resurfacing, but with intensifying rivalries, shifting allegiances, and a growing sense of urgency inside Malacañang.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, once buoyed by high trust ratings and political capital, now finds itself under increasing pressure. Public sentiment appears to be veering toward both the resurgent opposition and the enigmatic, still popular Sara Duterte, creating a volatile mix that could reshape the Senate and influence the 2028 presidential race.

The polls will serve as a referendum not only on Marcos Jr.’s governance but also on the public’s tolerance for political dynasties, economic hardship, and what many perceive as inaction on pressing national issues.

It’s no surprise that the Palace seems to be scrambling — recalibrating messaging, reviving promises, and trying to rebrand familiar names as saviors of the Republic. But voters are more discerning this time. After nearly three years of mixed performance, slogans no longer suffice.

Key issues are coming to the fore, and each one has the potential to swing votes dramatically.

1. The Economy and Inflation:

The rising cost of living remains the single most tangible concern for Filipinos. The price of rice has become a political landmine, and with inflation hitting ordinary households hard, promises of economic growth feel hollow. Voters are asking: When will the P20 rice be available nationwide? Where are the jobs? Without clear economic wins, administration candidates face an uphill climb.

2. Disaster Response and Climate Resilience:

Following a string of typhoons and recent devastating floods in Bicol and parts of Luzon, the government’s climate and disaster preparedness — or lack thereof — is under the microscope. Many recall President Marcos’s bold declarations in his past SoNAs, which now ring hollow amid submerged barangays and destroyed livelihoods.

3. Governance and Corruption:

Issues of transparency and accountability are creeping back into the public discourse. From the CoA-flagged funds in agencies like DepEd under Sara Duterte to unresolved controversies involving the Maharlika Investment Fund and “gentlemen’s agreements” with China, these lingering questions chip away at trust in institutions. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration’s perceived favoritism and selective justice — especially in how it has treated allies versus critics — feed opposition narratives.

4. Justice and Human Rights:

The revival of interest in rejoining the International Criminal Court (ICC), paired with renewed Senate hearings on Duterte’s drug war, has reignited debates about impunity and the pursuit of justice. Interestingly, this has breathed new life into both pro-Duterte and opposition figures. The public now sees a fragmented ruling coalition, with cracks forming between Duterte loyalists and Marcos allies — a scenario that could confuse or galvanize voters.

5. Personality Politics vs Performance:

Name recall still matters, but voters are growing wary of recycled candidates. The administration’s senatorial slate, packed with celebrities and returning traditional politicians, may struggle against the more narrative-driven campaigns of independent voices and opposition figures who brand themselves as “principled alternatives.”

In the end, the midterm derby is shaping up to be more than just a numbers game. It will test whether the Filipino electorate has grown more issue-oriented or remains tethered to old loyalties. As alliances fracture and new coalitions emerge, one thing is clear: 2025 is not just a prelude to 2028 — it’s a pivotal battle for the soul of the nation’s democracy.