Middle East nuclear war scenario

Middle East nuclear war scenario | Daily Tribune

Author’s Note. The geopolitics of the B-2 bombers on Diego Garcia was treated in a previous column.

This nuclear war scenario is theoretical, simplistic in the sense that it does not take into account many complex factors, known or unknown. But we can gain valuable insights in order to formulate a “peace plan,” especially for the warriors on all sides who believe that peace is out of the question and that war is inevitable.

The characters in this nuclear war scenario are the US and Israel on one side, and Russia, Iran and the Houthis of Yemen (and eventually China, when the going gets tough) on the other side.

We exclude the EU which is beginning to distance itself from Trump, and NATO which Trump is thinking of exiting based on his previous pronouncements. Without the US, which contributes the majority of financial and military support, NATO is considered a “lame duck.” The EU gives token support because it has been accustomed to the US being the big spender. The EU has thus become a spoiled fence-sitter by its own choice.

In the last few months, the war between the Houthis and US-Israel forces has been escalating rapidly, with Houthi drones and missiles attacking US and Israeli warships and commercial vessels and Israel towns and cities, particularly Tel Aviv, in spite of Israeli defense missiles destroying more than half of them.

As US President Donald Trump promised, he will use lethal force against the Houthis, who have partially succeeded in blocking navigational access to both US and Israeli ships in the Red Sea.

There are two factors for the escalation. First is genocide. If the Houthis succeed in sinking or heavily damaging a US carrier, the US will surely employ lethal retaliation against them, which may kill a lot of Houthis. Genocide is a critical factor, which is evident from Gaza.

The Houthis say they are waging war against the US and Israel because of the renewed Gaza genocide, the airstrikes in Gaza claiming massive civilian lives. Genocide is a key escalation factor — the massacre of innocent civilians who have nothing to do with the war.

The second escalation factor is the US taking the war to Iran, which it ultimately blames for giving military support to the Houthis.

Prodded by Netanyahu, the US will initiate a war with Iran. The US is worried that Iran may be able to build a nuclear bomb very soon from its increasing stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium. In truth, Iran does not need to make a bomb because, when push comes to shove, Russia will give it on a silver platter.

As previously mentioned, Russia will not allow Iran, its greatest ally in the Middle East, to fall into US hands. US bases in its homeland may now be the new target. For the first time in history, war may reach US territory. The last war on the American continent was the Civil War in the 1800s.

Jeffrey Sachs, the leading “anti-American American,” has sternly warned that a US war with Iran would inevitably mean a nuclear war. If cornered, in the name of survival, Iran will not hesitate to bring the war to the American continent with ICBMs obtained from Russia, or long-range nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles, in case Russia hesitates to give Iran ICBMs.

Once the war spreads to the American continent, the US may either stand down, concerned about massive civilian casualties, or consider a nuclear first-strike in desperation, which would be the mother of all escalations.

In a US nuclear first strike against Iran and/or Russia, even before the missiles hit Russia, it can retaliate and hit America. In truth, a nuclear first-strike, coming from either the US or Russia, is absurd and will simply cleanse the entire planet. Let us pray a nuclear first-strike does not happen. It may happen as the last option in a survival mode. At this point, the situation is unpredictable.

Let us pray hard for world peace. Prayer is our only option. We are mere fence-sitters in Armageddon, the perceived final war among the most powerful Kings of the Earth, according to the Book of Revelation.