On 11 March 2025, many Filipinos were glued to their TVs, radios and mobile phones for blow by blow updates on the arrest of former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD) as he arrived from a campaign sortie in Hong Kong for the PDP-Laban’s senatorial slate.

The news broke at around 9 a.m. that morning with FPRRD being whisked off to the VIP Lounge in Villamor Air Base where a 12-hour stand-off ensued. Up until the moment the government-chartered Gulfstream jet left at around 11 p.m. later that night with FPRRD and his erstwhile executive secretary Salvador Medialdea aboard, many were in shock and disbelief at the swiftly executed rendition.

Uncharacteristically, President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos (PBBM) braved the aftermath to hold a live address to the nation on the government’s role in the shocking events that had just transpired.

I admit I was surprised at the seemingly deliberate and specific timing of PBBM’s live address to start after the plane had already “exited Philippine airspace.” Technically, Duterte was still under Philippine jurisdiction since the aircraft, RP-C5219, was under Philippine registration which made it, to some extent, still subject to Philippine laws and regulations. I concede, however, that even if a TRO were issued by the Supreme Court while FPRRD remained on board the plane, it may, nonetheless, not be possible to enforce it inflight.

The moment the aircraft lifted off the tarmac, it was game over. Any remedies availed of before the Philippine courts would be rendered inutile.

The extent of the political impact would be reflected in the next cycle of surveys that will be conducted in the aftermath of FPRRD’s arrest.

No one in the opposition, not even Senator Bong Go, has been able to harness and solidify support for the Dutertes outside of Mindanao. While we continue to see pockets of protests being held all over the country, there is no unifying figure behind the opposition without the Vice President. With VP Sara and Cong. Pulong occupied in The Hague, the inexperienced Mayor Baste is left fending for the bailiwick and the Duterte stronghold in Davao.

Meanwhile, there is still the pending matter of the impeachment trial. VP Sara can either stop the bleeding, throw in the towel and focus her efforts on the defense (and care) of FPRRD and preserving their stronghold in Davao. If she insists on going forth with the trial, she risks conviction and perpetual disqualification from holding public office.

What VP Sara is trying to achieve while in The Hague is short of impossible. The ICC will not willingly surrender FPRRD as his arrest and subsequent trial reinforce their continued relevance in the “rules-based international order.”

Neither is an acquittal forthcoming. We can only imagine the myriad of emotions VP Sara is feeling while trying to find a way to get her father back home — anger, frustration, regret and guilt over the state of affairs her decisions and miscalculations have wrought on the once all-powerful family.

Ultimately, the Duterte family must prepare for the worst-case scenarios. That FPRRD will not be able to return home; that he could die during the pendency of the trial; or be convicted and pass away while serving his sentence.

For as long as the Romualdez-Marcoses are in power, FPRRD will not be allowed to come home to the Philippines. (To be continued)