The approach to combating illegal drugs has been a defining policy for both President Rodrigo Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. However, the strategies, results, and public perception of their respective campaigns have differed significantly. While Duterte’s drug war was marked by aggressive law enforcement and high casualty rates, Marcos’ strategy has been characterized as a more "bloodless drug war" that focuses on intelligence-driven operations.

Drug seizures and monetary value

One of the key indicators of the effectiveness of an anti-drug campaign is the amount of illegal drugs seized and their corresponding monetary value. During the first two years of Duterte’s administration (2016-2018), authorities confiscated 3,294.44 kilograms of shabu and other drugs valued at approximately P25.19 billion. This was achieved in the backdrop of over 20,000 alleged drug personalities slain during police operations.

In contrast, the first two years of Marcos’ administration (2022-2024) saw the confiscation of 12,183.65 kilograms of illegal drugs, including 6,481.16 kilograms of shabu, 75.69 kilograms of cocaine, 115,081 ecstasy pills, and 5,626 kilograms of marijuana. The total value of these confiscations reached P49.82 billion, nearly double that of Duterte’s first two years. These figures suggest a significant increase in drug seizures under Marcos, attributed to enhanced intelligence operations targeting large-scale trafficking networks rather than street-level dealers.

By the end of 2024, the Philippine National Police (PNP) reported that P20.7 billion worth of illegal drugs were confiscated in that year alone, a 101 percent increase compared to 2023. This indicates a continued effort by the Marcos administration to intensify drug enforcement, albeit with fewer reported casualties compared to Duterte’s campaign.

Duterte administration (First two years: 2016-2018)

• P25.19 billion worth of illegal drugs seized

• 3,294.44 kg. of shabu and other drugs confiscated

• Over 20,000 alleged drug personalities killed

Marcos administration (First two years: 2022-2024)

• P49.82 billion worth of illegal drugs seized

• 12,183.65 kg. of illegal drugs confiscated, including:

  • 6,481.16 kg. of shabu

  • 75.69 kg. of cocaine

  • 115,081 ecstasy pills

  • 5,626 kg. of marijuana

• 800 reported drug-related deaths

Death toll and enforcement tactics

A stark difference between the two administrations is the level of violence associated with their anti-drug operations. Duterte’s war on drugs was characterized by extrajudicial killings and controversial police operations, leading to thousands of deaths. Data from the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) and PNP indicate that from July 2016 to March 2022, at least 6,241 people were killed in over 233,356 anti-illegal drug operations.

Conversely, under Marcos’ administration, drug-related deaths have been significantly lower. Official reports estimate around 800 drug-related deaths from 2022 to 2024, a stark contrast to Duterte’s numbers. This reduction aligns with Marcos' approach, which prioritizes intelligence-driven operations over violent crackdowns. As stated by PNP Chief Francisco Marbil, the administration's campaign is a "calibrated anti-drug campaign, which puts a premium on human rights."

Public perception and political ramifications

Public sentiment on the drug war also varies between the two administrations. Interviews with adults aged 40 to 60 revealed a strong preference for Duterte’s approach, with statements like:

• “Nung kay Duterte naubos yan lahat.” ("Under Duterte, drugs were wiped out.")

• “Nung panahon ni Duterte wala namang droga dyan. Dumami lang uli nung nawala siya. Bumalik sila.” ("During Duterte’s time, there were no drugs. They only came back when he left. The drug syndicates returned.")

When asked who was better at handling the drug problem, most respondents favored Duterte. Meanwhile, opinions on Marcos’ anti-drug efforts included:

• “Wala naman nagbago. Ganoon pa rin.” ("Nothing changed much, it is still the same.")

• “Siguro mas onti yung namamatay, pero parang hindi naman bawasan yung droga.” ("Maybe fewer people are dying, but drugs don’t seem to have decreased.")

• “Probably higher [drug prevalence] since drugs are not part of Marcos’ target focus.”

A study by Mendoza, Deinla, Domingo, and Yap (2022) on policy satisfaction showed that 71 percent of respondents approved of the government’s drug campaign. Notably, 89.5 percent of Marcos voters supported Duterte’s flagship drug war policy, indicating a political continuity in anti-drug sentiments even under Marcos.

Comparing community impact

Duterte’s administration pursued a three-pronged strategy: supply reduction, demand reduction, and harm reduction. This led to the dismantling of 1,197 drug dens and 19 clandestine laboratories, the arrest of 15,271 high-value targets (HVTs), and the rescue of 4,307 minors involved in the drug trade. Reports indicate that over 6,241 people were killed in 233,356 anti-illegal drug operations from 2016 to 2022. Meanwhile, P89.79 billion worth of narcotics were confiscated before Duterte left office.

Meanwhile, the Marcos administration reported clearing over 27,000 barangays of illegal drug influence by December 2023, with 23 provinces, 447 municipalities, and 43 cities establishing community-based drug rehabilitation programs (CBDRPs). The push for rehabilitation programs is a notable shift from Duterte’s crackdown-heavy approach. Marcos has focused more on rehabilitation and intelligence-driven operations. In 2023 alone, the administration reported seizing P10.41 billion worth of illegal drugs while clearing over 27,000 barangays of narcotics. Authorities have also emphasized community-based drug rehabilitation programs, with over 50 provinces and 1,160 municipalities participating.

Conclusion: Two strategies, same goal

While both Duterte and Marcos have pursued campaigns against illegal drugs, their methods and impacts are markedly different. Duterte's administration prioritized an aggressive, high-mortality approach that saw extensive street-level operations, resulting in high casualties and strong public approval among certain demographics. Marcos, on the other hand, has emphasized a more intelligence-driven, less violent approach that has yielded higher drug seizures but mixed public perception.

Marcos Jr. has demonstrated an ability to seize large quantities of illegal drugs, and his administration’s lower casualty count suggests a strategic shift. However, the perception remains that his policies have not significantly curbed drug proliferation. Duterte’s war on drugs, albeit controversial and widely condemned for human rights abuses, is still regarded by many as more effective in dismantling the drug trade at all levels.

The future of the Philippine drug campaign remains uncertain. While Marcos’ administration has demonstrated success in increasing drug seizures, concerns persist about whether a reduction in drug-related deaths has also meant a resurgence of illegal drug activity.