State weather bureau PAGASA reported on Sunday that Tropical Storm Carina slightly intensified over the Philippine Sea and will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat.

As of 11 a.m., its center was estimated at 350 km east of Casiguran, Aurora, moving westward at a 20-kilometer per hour (km/h) pace.

‘Carina’ recorded maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and a central pressure of 996 hectoPascals (hPa).

PAGASA also warned of strong to gale-force winds possibly extending outwards up to 320 km from the center.

As of this writing, no wind signal is hoisted.

The agency, however, noted that the raising  of Wind Signal No. 1 over Extreme Northern Luzon and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out, possibly by tonight or tomorrow in anticipation of strong winds associated with ‘Carina.’

Heavy rainfall outlook

A rainy third State of the Nation Address (SoNA) by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may be expected as rainshoweres are expected all over the country on the next days.

Based on PAGASA’s  heavy rainfall outlook, the forecasted accumulated rainfall from Sunday to Monday noon is 50 to 100 milimmiters (mm) of rain for Mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands.

On the other hand,  rainfall of 100 to 200 mm for Batanes. and 50 to 100 mm for the Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan is expected from Monday noon to Tuesday noon.

From Tuesday noon to Wednesday noon, 100–200 mm are projected in Batanes and 50–100 mm are projected for the Babuyan Islands.

PAGASA said forecast rainfall is generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas, thus preparing for possible flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas that are highly or very susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that have experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

“Furthermore, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon tomorrow through Tuesday,” it added.

Track and intensity outlook

‘Carina’  is seen to move generally north-northwestward to northward from today until Tuesday.

Due to the favorable environment, PAGASA said that ‘Carina’  is expected to steadily intensify over the next four days. 

It is forecast to become a severe tropical storm by Sunday night and reach the typhoon category by Monday evening. 

‘Carina’ as of writing is estimated to remain far from the Philippine landmass and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday night or Thursday early morning.