There is evidence refuting the proposition that the economy under President Duterte, no matter an earlier quip, is experiencing rapid growth, two independent reports have indicated.
The Trading Economics report released only this month showed the economy “grew an annual 6.8 percent year-on-year in the March quarter of 2018.” A similar paper by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the World Bank Group titled “Paying Taxes 2018 Report” cited the country’s improved overall tax collection as a result of reform measures initiated by the administration.
The Trading Economics report said, “Both investment and government spending rose faster while private consumption and exports continued to increase. In the three months to March, gross domestic capital formation increased by 12.5 percent, accelerating from a 8.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. Investment in intellectual property products grew by 12.7 percent, followed by durable equipment (10.1 percent); construction (8.9 percent), and breeding stocks and orchard development (4.2 percent).”
Ironically, sustained economic growth over the past two years was achieved despite persistent calls to stop the government war against illegal drugs and its handling of the South China Sea issue.
The report added, “Government expenditure rose 13.6 percent, faster than a 12.2 percent growth in the December quarter. Meantime, household consumption expanded 5.6 percent year-on-year, compared to a 6.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter.
“Exports increased by 6.2 percent, following a 20.6 percent rise in the fourth quarter. Sales of goods rose 2.9 percent (from 12.2 percent in the fourth quarter) and those of services went up 17.9 percent (from 14.5 percent). Imports rose by 9.3 percent, following an 18.1 percent rise in the preceding quarter.”
Although the report focused on statistical analysis and not on qualitative factors, one thing was clear. No matter his critics and loud calls for his ouster, President Duterte continues to thwart them with a sanguine economic performance.
Duterte’s numbers also show him getting the jobs done despite rising inflation best indicated by buoyant commodities prices. The spike in world crude prices as well as the rising interest rates and the weakened peso all threaten to derail the economy.
Nevertheless, the economic growth in the first five months of 2018 remain within the government target.
Central to the administration’s program is the ambitious infrastructure development project called the ‘Build, Build, Build!’ (BBB) amounting to P9.6 trillion ($180 billion), consisting of 75 flagship programs, of which 35 have already hurdled the approval process and ready for execution. Ten of these projects will move to the construction stage this year.
The mega-projects under BBB are also complemented by so-called public-private partnerships or PPP initiatives where foreign investors co-finance the rebuilding and refurbishing of existing infrastructure, like entire city blocks, buildings and streets across country’s major urban centers. The PPP seeks to boost the country’s tourism sector by providing incentives to interested players while providing a template for future investments in major cities.
Crucial to the success of these initiatives is attracting the right kind of foreign capital. Although fresh capital infusion plays a key role in any growing economy, it is also essential for countries like the Philippines to generate foreign investments that make possible sustained economic development through a direct stimulus that encourages inclusive growth.
For 2018, the government targets growth ranging from 7.0 and 8.0 percent and this much acceleration over the next six years as well.
New research by PWC and the World Bank has also credited the government for tax reforms that boost the country’s overall ranking from 126th in 2016 to 105th this year out of 190 economies.
Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez quickly welcomed the report and said, “This reflects the Duterte administration’s effort providing fast and efficient tax collection service.”
He added the country’s so-called total tax time was reduced from 193 hours in 2016 to 182 hours.
“This indicator refers to the total number of hours required to file taxes. The total number of tax payments in the country, on the other hand, was reduced from 36 in 2016 to 20. This indicator refers to the frequency with which the company has to file and pay different types of taxes and contributions,” Dominguez said.
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