The relief motorists got from this week’s sharp diesel price rollback could be short-lived, with industry estimates pointing to a fresh increase of up to P4.50 per liter next week amid renewed concerns over global oil supply disruptions.

Based on Monday to Thursday Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange averages, an industry source said Friday diesel prices are projected to rise by around P4 to P4.50 per liter next week, while gasoline prices could decline by P1 to P1.50 per liter.

Claw back almost half of price rollback

If realized, the diesel adjustment would claw back nearly half of this week’s P9.26-per-liter rollback. Gasoline, on the other hand, would extend its downward trend following this week’s P4.76-per-liter reduction.

“Crude oil and refined fuel products prices have rallied this week on worries of stalled diplomacy and prolonged supply disruption following the suspension of negotiations on the peace deal, and renewed threats by Iran of full closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” the industry source said.

“Concerns that global oil inventories could hit critical levels if stock draws continue at the current pace further contributed to the bullish sentiment.”

Gasoline prices softened

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, have softened amid stronger refinery output and weaker demand signals in parts of Asia.

The outlook, however, could still improve before the next round of fuel price adjustments.

“Following the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, global oil prices have softened and are likely to ease down further as hopes that the peace talks between the US and Iran will continue,” the source said.

The projected adjustments would bring common Metro Manila pump prices to around P77.44 to P77.94 per liter for diesel, P86.54 to P87.04 per liter for Diesel Plus, P73.34 to P73.84 per liter for RON91 gasoline, P76.64 to P77.14 per liter for RON95, and P83.24 to P83.74 per liter for RON97/100.