For the third year in a row, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will miss its full-year growth targets.

This year, even the lowered goal of 5.5 to 6.5 percent will likely not be achieved. The original marker was a range of 6.5 to 7-percent gross domestic product (GDP) expansion.

Economists said the situation is worsening, given the economy’s exclusionary character, in which wealth is concentrated in the upper crust of society.

Most Filipinos have not felt the effects of development, and now that growth seems to be fading, they are not likely to feel them much more.

According to the Ibon Foundation, the economy was racking up an average growth rate of 5.7 percent per quarter since Marcos took over in July 2022.

Even before Marcos, inclusivity has been a problem in the economy as the poverty rate has failed to improve to below double-digits.

The average poverty rate during President Rodrigo Duterte’s term can be estimated from the 2015 rate of 23.3 percent to the 2021 rate of 18.1 percent, with the lowest point recorded in 2018 at 16.6 percent.

Surveys made by independent pollsters showed a worse situation since self-rated poor Filipino families were about 50 percent of the total, while hunger was a problem for 22 percent of households.

GDP growth slowed to four percent in the third quarter, the slowest in 14 years, bringing the economy’s growth to just five percent in the first three quarters.

According to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, the economy needs an unlikely seven-percent growth in the fourth quarter to hit the low end of this year’s target.

President Marcos and his economic managers are pinning their hopes on a final kick in holiday spending to boost growth.

Economists, however, are bursting the bubble as household consumption growth in the third quarter was at its slowest in 15 years, except during the severe pandemic lockdowns.

Historical data do not support the prospect of a year-end boost, as growth slowed or remained the same in 12 of the past 25 years, was a bit faster in just 13, and never showed a seven-percent uptrend in the final three months.

According to an economist, the only way the lofty goal can be achieved is through a miracle in export receipts, which is not supported by the protracted global slowdown.

“Even if exports increase, the country’s exports are so import-dependent that a corresponding spike in imports would offset this. World Trade Organization projections showed merchandise trade posting a flat performance this year, then skidding to 0.5 percent next year.

The House of Representatives approved the 2026 national budget last month, with total spending set to reach P6.79 trillion, a 7.4-percent increase over the previous year.

Economists said fiscal prudence has also been a challenging goal under President Marcos, as rising borrowing helps plug the deficit.

The World Bank has projected growth of around 5.6 percent in 2025 but the figure, based on economists’ new estimates, might be a bit high, as the economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter.

The estimate for 2026 is again based on overly optimistic projections that the economy will grow by at least six percent next year.

Troubling for economists is the spending cuts for Department of Public Works and Highways projects, mainly as optics amid the corruption scandal.

Recent increases in government spending have come almost entirely from higher debt servicing and personnel costs, not infrastructure.

Capital outlays are falling and are expected to contract a further nine percent in 2026 under the House’s spending plan, even before the Senate makes any cuts.

All of the indicators thus point to the economy worsening, a slowing of the momentum that began when President Marcos took the reins of government.