Despite all the drills and media statements, a former disaster response official said the country, particularly Metro Manila, is not ready for the so-called “Big One“ — a powerful earthquake of magnitude-7.2 or higher.

“The only way to guarantee preparations is to create a civil defense department. Because if you don’t empower the government’s capabilities, the country will never be ready. That’s the truth,” the former official said.

“Believe me, we’re not ready, period,” he added.

The estimate is that some 30,000 will die during the “Big One,” but up to today this has been half-heartedly addressed.

“It’s like a war. If it’s okay for anyone to anticipate 30,000 deaths, then there is no problem,” he said.

Nosy Tarsee was told that the Big One, if it happens, would be like a genocide.

“The estimated 30,000 casualties was based on a 2004 study. We have a bigger population now,” according to the ex-official.

Most of the two million structures that would be destroyed in a big earthquake are the informal settlements, the do-it-yourself shelters.

He said the people living in condominiums are also vulnerable, although high-rise structures are actually safer, since most have rollers that prevent collapse, provided they are not located in fault areas.

But if the structure sits on a fault line, “then sorry,” the ex-official said.